Ben Hill Griffin StadiumClosing line: FSU +-1.5 · FLA covered
Sat, Nov 29, 9:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| FLA | 10 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FLA Elo 1543, FSU Elo 1606) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA +0.1 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
FLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida State 21, Florida 40.
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete deep right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA31, for 34 yards to the FLA20 (#18 B.Thornton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass intercepted by #12 B.Hanks III at FLA01 #12 B.Hanks III return 48 yards to the FLA49, out of bounds at FLA49
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FLA24 (#8 A.Chiles), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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