Florida State vs. Florida: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Florida State5-6

Florida3-8

▸

Final

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
FSU	0	14	0	7	21
FLA	10	7	14	9	40

FSUTeam statsFLA

407Total yards440

240Pass168

167Rush272

24First downs26

6-123rd down6-13

2Turnovers1

25:18Possession34:42

Q4 0:56FLAJadan Baugh 12 Yd Run (Trey Smack PAT failed)21–40
Q4 3:07FSULawayne McCoy 17 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)21–34
Q4 7:38FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 14–34
Q3 2:55FLAJ. Baugh run for 22 yds, for a TD (T. Smack KICK)14–31
Q3 9:47FLAHayden Hansen 3 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–24
Q2 1:11FSUT. Castellanos run for 4 yds, for a TD (J. Weinberg KICK)14–17
Q2 5:38FLATony Livingston 9 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–17
Q2 13:39FSUMicahi Danzy 13 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–10
Q1 2:49FLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 5 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)0–10
Q1 9:25FLATrey Smack 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Model line

FSU −0.1

market FSU −1.5

Biggest swing

FLA +21%

Q3 9:47

Against the number

FLA covered

line FSU −1.5

FLA favored ↑50%FSU favored ↓

GridpexFLA 100%

Closing line

FSU −1.5

Closing total

49.0

Model line

FSU −0.1

Actual result

FSU 21 – 40 FLA

DraftKings, liveFSU −1.5total 49.5

Florida State

PassThomas Castellanos 17/28, 240 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushThomas Castellanos 19 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
RecLawayne McCoy 6 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD

Florida

PassDJ Lagway 15/24, 168 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
RushJadan Baugh 38 CAR, 266 YDS, 2 TD
RecJ. Michael Sturdivant 3 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

FLA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17 WOhio State vs Indiana23-3 WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24 WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17 WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Q3 9:47FLA +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short right to #89 H.Hansen caught at FSU00, for 3 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN
Q1 13:03FSU +11%
#43 M.Chiumento punt 38 yards to the FLA45 #8 V.Brown III return 0 yards to the FLA45 (#3 E.Joseph)
Q3 2:55FLA +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush left for 22 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q3 10:52FLA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush right for 20 yards gain to the FSU20 (#0 E.Little Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Q3 6:21FLA +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Baugh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU48 (#28 J.Cryer; #93 M.Desir) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU49 to FSU44, 1ST DOW…
Q3 12:37FSU +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU31 (#15 J.Woods; #88 C.Banks), 1ST DOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of Florida State vs. Florida?

Florida State 21, Florida 40.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.

FSU

FLA

48%

Success rate

56%

0.44

EPA / pass

0.64

0.07

EPA / rush

0.34

52%

Early-down success

54%

48%

Pass success

58%

48%

Rush success

55%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

50%

Pass rate

30%

4.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.0

FSU

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

FLA

5.0 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

FSU		FLA
407	Total yards	440
240	Passing yards	168
167	Rushing yards	272
24	First downs	26
6-12	3rd down	6-13
1-3	4th down	2-2
17/28	Comp/Att	15/24
8.6	Yards per pass	7.0
4.5	Yards per rush	6.0
2	Turnovers	1
4-28	Penalties	5-45
25:18	Possession	34:42

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

FLA 1543

FSU 1606

Projected spread

FLA +0.1

incl. home edge

Model pick

FLA

51% to win

Market spread

FLA +1.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

51%

FLA · market 50%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1543, FSU Elo 1606 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +0.1 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

FSU2025 season · national rank shownFLA

472.36th

Total yards / game

341.3104th

6.714th

Yards / play

5.493rd

253.440th

Passing yards / game

204.693rd

218.811th

Rushing yards / game

136.891st

50.6%8th

3rd down %

34.4%113th

329.128th

Yards allowed / game

377.870th

38.4%59th

3rd down % allowed

43.8%117th

-5103rd

Turnover margin

-177th

5.440th

Penalties / game

5.130th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Florida were +1.5 — a 46% shot

#54 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #111 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.

The 2025 upset archive →

Florida-Florida State70 meetings since 1904

Florida leads 39–29–2 · Florida has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

FSU		FLA
+14.3 (#29)	CORE overall	+3.5 (#59)
+13 / -1	offense / defense	+0 / -3
2.75	points / drive	1.68
2.42	allowed / drive	2.50
17%	three-and-outs	28%
-8	pass over expected	+3

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 29, 4:30 PM EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Setting: Non-conference
Model line: FSU -0.1

The Model's Pick

Florida

to win · 51%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadFSU -0.1

Market50%

Game Leaders

Florida State

Pass Thomas Castellanos17/28, 240 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rush Thomas Castellanos19 car, 77 yds, 1 TD
Rec Lawayne McCoy6 rec, 117 yds, 1 TD

Florida

Pass D.J. Lagway15/24, 168 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rush Jadan Baugh38 car, 266 yds, 2 TD
Rec J.Michael Sturdivant3 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

Florida State+4.5 EPA
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete deep right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FLA31, for 34 yards to the FLA20 (#18 B.Thornton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Florida+-4.1 EPA
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass intercepted by #12 B.Hanks III at FLA01 #12 B.Hanks III return 48 yards to the FLA49, out of bounds at FLA49
Florida+-3.5 EPA
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FLA24 (#8 A.Chiles), TURNOVER ON DOWNS

FSUTeam statsFLA

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Florida State vs. Florida?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Florida State vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap

FSUTeam statsFLA

How the model called it

What was the final score of Florida State vs. Florida?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups