Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsTULN
- Q4 1:49FAUEaston Messer 12 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Caden Veltkamp Pass to Asaad Waseem for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q4 4:30TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)16–35
- Q4 11:09FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 1:00TULNJamauri McClure 8 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:08TULNAnthony Miller 14 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:06FAUJayshon Platt 4 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:54TULNBryce Bohanon 29 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:06FAUGarrison Smith 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:38TULNJimmy Calloway 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TULN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FAU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassCaden Veltkamp 39/57, 375 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushKaden Shields-Dutton 10 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEaston Messer 9 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Retzlaff 18/27, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJamauri McClure 10 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBryce Bohanon 3 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane?
Florida Atlantic 24, Tulane 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| FAU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 472 | Total yards | 403 |
| 375 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 32 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 39/57 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 7-84 |
| 30:20 | Possession | 29:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:54 TULN go for it on 4th & 6 at FAU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49FAUEaston Messer 12 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Caden Veltkamp Pass to Asaad Waseem for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q4 4:30TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)16–35
- Q4 11:09FAUKaden Shields-Dutton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 1:00TULNJamauri McClure 8 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:08TULNAnthony Miller 14 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:06FAUJayshon Platt 4 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:54TULNBryce Bohanon 29 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:06FAUGarrison Smith 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:38TULNJimmy Calloway 14 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1545, FAU Elo 1247 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -14.3 (83% to win) — 2.7 points clear of FAU's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#103) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#47) |
| -1 / +12 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →