Sat, Nov 15, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| TULN | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1545, FAU Elo 1247) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -14.3 (86% to win) — 2.7 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -17.
TULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida Atlantic 24, Tulane 35.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete deep right to #83 B.Bohanon caught at FAU00, for 29 yards to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Durkin kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Clark, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass intercepted by #32 B.Despanie at TLN00 broken up by #11 E.Shine, Touchback
(02:11) Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp rush middle for 0 yards to the TLN01 (#4 C.Rodgers), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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