Yulman StadiumConference gameClosing line: TULN -17 · FAU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| TULN | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Team stats
FAUthis game · better side highlightedTULN
472
Total yards
403375
Passing yards
24197
Rushing yards
16232
First downs
216-14 · 43%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TULN 1545
FAU 1247
Projected spread
TULN -14.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
TULN
86% to win
Market spread
TULN -17
sportsbook line
Model edge
FAU
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
TULN · market 85%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1545, FAU Elo 1247) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -14.3 (86% to win) — 2.7 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -17.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TULN (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TULN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- TULN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TULN pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FAU.
- TULN pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge TULN.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →TULN 5/12 scoring drives
FAUINT8 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
TULNPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
FAUPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
TULN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Tulane?
Florida Atlantic 24, Tulane 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.