Raymond James StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| USF | 7 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 48 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1607
FAU 1270
Projected spread
USF -15.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
USF
88% to win
Market spread
USF -20.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
FAU
4.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
USF · market 90%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1607, FAU Elo 1270) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -15.9 (88% to win) — 4.6 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -20.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge USF.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge FAU.
- USF rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 8/12 scoring drives
USFTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FAUFG14 pl, 51 yds· own 22Q1
USFMISS11 pl, 58 yds· own 17Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
USF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida?
Florida Atlantic 13, South Florida 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.