Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 2:50USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 13–48
- Q4 9:05USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–45
- Q4 13:39USFJeremiah Koger 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–38
- Q3 4:10USFWyatt Sullivan 24 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–31
- Q3 8:20USFNico Gramatica 41 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 12:12FAUMichael Kirch 3 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)13–21
- Q2 0:00FAUGarrison Smith 28 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 9:40USFCole Skinner 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:00USFJonathan Echols 19 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:53FAUGarrison Smith 45 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:46USFByrum Brown 22 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassCaden Veltkamp 35/50, 244 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaden Shields-Dutton 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecAsaad Waseem 8 REC, 56 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 14/24, 256 YDS, 3 TD
- RushByrum Brown 14 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Koger 4 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:12FAU +7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q3 8:20USF +6%
Nico Gramatica 41 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida?
Florida Atlantic 13, South Florida 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| FAU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Total yards | 522 |
| 289 | Passing yards | 263 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 259 |
| 25 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-21 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 7-8 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 41/58 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 0.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:58 FAU go for it on 4th & 8 at FAU 27. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:50USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 13–48
- Q4 9:05USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–45
- Q4 13:39USFJeremiah Koger 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–38
- Q3 4:10USFWyatt Sullivan 24 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)13–31
- Q3 8:20USFNico Gramatica 41 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 12:12FAUMichael Kirch 3 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)13–21
- Q2 0:00FAUGarrison Smith 28 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 9:40USFCole Skinner 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–21
- Q2 12:00USFJonathan Echols 19 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:53FAUGarrison Smith 45 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:46USFByrum Brown 22 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1607, FAU Elo 1270 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -15.9 (85% to win) — 4.6 points clear of FAU's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#103) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| -1 / +12 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →