Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsMD
- Q3 8:30MDSean O'Haire 42 Yd Field Goal 7–39
- Q3 11:13MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q2 0:37MDDorian Fleming 9 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–33
- Q2 3:17MDKaleb Webb 29 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–26
- Q2 7:51MDShaleak Knotts 29 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–19
- Q2 10:42MDSidney Stewart Safety7–12
- Q2 14:01MDSean O'Haire 49 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:59FAUAsaad Waseem 27 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:38MDDaniel Wingate 20 Yd Interception Return (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassCaden Veltkamp 30/49, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushGemari Sands 9 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecEaston Messer 15 REC, 87 YDS
- PassMalik Washington 27/43, 258 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDeJuan Williams 10 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecShaleak Knotts 5 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:59FAU +15%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 27 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q1 6:38MD +14%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Daniel Wingate return for 20 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q2 10:42MD +11%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Bah,Aliou) 5 yards from FAU25 to FAU30. NO PLAY
- Q2 7:51MD +11%
Malik Washington pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 29 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q2 14:01MD +9%
Sean O'Haire 49 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland?
Florida Atlantic 7, Maryland 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| FAU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Total yards | 380 |
| 277 | Passing yards | 268 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-20 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 3-9 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 36/62 | Comp/Att | 28/47 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-77 | Penalties | 14-100 |
| 30:26 | Possession | 29:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:18 MD punt on 4th & 9 at FAU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 8:30MDSean O'Haire 42 Yd Field Goal 7–39
- Q3 11:13MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 7–36
- Q2 0:37MDDorian Fleming 9 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–33
- Q2 3:17MDKaleb Webb 29 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–26
- Q2 7:51MDShaleak Knotts 29 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)7–19
- Q2 10:42MDSidney Stewart Safety7–12
- Q2 14:01MDSean O'Haire 49 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:59FAUAsaad Waseem 27 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:38MDDaniel Wingate 20 Yd Interception Return (Sean O'Haire Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1438, FAU Elo 1311 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -7.5 (70% to win) — 6.5 points clear of FAU's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#103) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#75) |
| -1 / +12 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →