SECU Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MD | 7 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 39 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MD 1438
FAU 1311
Projected spread
MD -7.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
MD
71% to win
Market spread
MD -14
sportsbook line
Model edge
FAU
6.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
MD · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1438, FAU Elo 1311) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD -7.5 (71% to win) — 6.5 points of value on FAU versus the market line of -14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MD (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MD 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MD rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. MD pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. MD rush defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MD.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 2/17 scoring drives← own end zone →MD 6/15 scoring drives
FAUDOWNS12 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q1
MDPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 2Q1
FAUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MD up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MD went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Maryland?
Florida Atlantic 7, Maryland 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MD pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.