Eastern Washington vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Washington

0014

Boise State0-1

▸0051

Final

Albertsons Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	7	0	7	14
BOIS	20	10	7	14	51

EASTTeam statsBOIS

293Total yards637

176Pass309

117Rush328

13First downs22

6-183rd down7-13

2Turnovers0

31:36Possession28:24

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:54BOISDylan Riley 77 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)14–51
• Q4 3:54EASTNate Bell 2 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)14–44
• Q4 11:56BOISBen Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)7–44
• Q3 4:55BOISCameron Bates 20 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)7–37
• Q2 0:50BOISCanaan Moore 35 Yd Field Goal 7–30
• Q2 6:26BOISMaddux Madsen 11 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)7–27
• Q2 8:53EASTJared Taylor 5 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)7–20
• Q1 2:49BOISBen Ford 60 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–20
• Q1 10:01BOISSire Gaines 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–13
• Q1 13:50BOISMalik Sherrod 20 Yd Run (Colton Boomer PAT blocked)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

BOIS −33

Against the number

BOIS covered

line BOIS −33

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BOIS 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BOIS (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BOIS 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

BOIS −33

Closing total

60.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 14 – 51 BOIS

Leaders

Eastern Washington

• PassJared Taylor 14/28, 102 YDS
• RushJared Taylor 17 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
• RecNoah Cronquist 4 REC, 67 YDS

Boise State

• PassMaddux Madsen 16/26, 307 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDylan Riley 6 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
• RecChris Marshall 4 REC, 132 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.45

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BOIS up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 533 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

BOIS went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WIdaho vs Lamar42-17WNorth Dakota State vs Maine44-7WColumbia vs Georgetown30-0WEast Carolina vs Gardner-Webb44-0WNorfolk State vs Delaware State44-21

Fourth downs

21 calls

BOIS gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 13/14 · BOIS 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Washington vs. Boise State?

Eastern Washington 14, Boise State 51.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

BOIS

28%

Success rate

48%

-0.11

EPA / pass

0.59

0.11

EPA / rush

0.42

28%

Early-down success

46%

27%

Pass success

48%

30%

Rush success

48%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

55%

Pass rate

44%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.7

EAST

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

BOIS

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		BOIS
293	Total yards	637
176	Passing yards	309
117	Rushing yards	328
13	First downs	22
6-18	3rd down	7-13
1-3	4th down	0-1
19/37	Comp/Att	17/29
4.8	Yards per pass	10.7
3.8	Yards per rush	8.4
2	Turnovers	0
5-39	Penalties	6-55
31:36	Possession	28:24

Fourth downs

21 calls

EAST

13/14 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

BOIS

4/5 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 6:07 BOIS punt on 4th & 1 at BOIS 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (21)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BOIS 8/15 scoring drives

BOISTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

EASTFUM4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1

BOISTD6 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1

EASTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

BOISPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 4Q1

EASTDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 39Q1

BOISTD1 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

BOISMISS8 pl, 36 yds· own 36Q1

EASTTD10 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

BOISTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

BOISPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 38Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 4Q2

BOISFG5 pl, 31 yds· opp 48Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q2

BOISEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 36Q2

EASTDOWNS10 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q3

BOISTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

EASTPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3

BOISTD12 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

BOISMISS7 pl, 44 yds· midfieldQ4

EASTTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

BOISTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

EASTINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4

BOISDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 16Q4

EASTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 7Q4

BOISEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 45Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:54BOISDylan Riley 77 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)14–51
• Q4 3:54EASTNate Bell 2 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)14–44
• Q4 11:56BOISBen Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)7–44
• Q3 4:55BOISCameron Bates 20 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)7–37
• Q2 0:50BOISCanaan Moore 35 Yd Field Goal 7–30
• Q2 6:26BOISMaddux Madsen 11 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)7–27
• Q2 8:53EASTJared Taylor 5 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)7–20
• Q1 2:49BOISBen Ford 60 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–20
• Q1 10:01BOISSire Gaines 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–13
• Q1 13:50BOISMalik Sherrod 20 Yd Run (Colton Boomer PAT blocked)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →