Eastern Kentucky vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Kentucky0-1

07

Marshall0-2

▸0038

Final

Joan C. Edwards Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	0	7	0	7
MRSH	17	14	7	0	38

EASTTeam statsMRSH

102Total yards377

91Pass114

11Rush263

10First downs21

2-133rd down6-16

2Turnovers2

25:56Possession34:04

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:01MRSHJacQai Long 3 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–38
• Q3 13:08EASTJayden West 13 Yd pass from Jordyn Potts (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:08MRSHAdrian Norton 30 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–31
• Q2 12:03MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 30 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–24
• Q1 0:25MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 3 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:01MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–10
• Q1 8:13MRSHLorcan Quinn 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

MRSH −15.5

Against the number

MRSH covered

line MRSH −15.5

What the numbers say

• EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MRSH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 6.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MRSH 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff150 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MRSH (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MRSH 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MRSH −15.5

Closing total

50.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 7 – 38 MRSH

Leaders

Eastern Kentucky

• PassJordyn Potts 7/19, 78 YDS, 1 TD
• RushBrayden Latham 10 CAR, 18 YDS
• RecT.J. Mitchell 1 REC, 36 YDS

Marshall

• PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 7/9, 108 YDS, 2 TD
• RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 13 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJustin Williams-Thomas 3 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

127

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MRSH up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MRSH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WButler vs Taylor41-13WTemple vs Norfolk State41-11WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WLamar vs Lincoln (CA)38-0

Fourth downs

19 calls

MRSH gave up 3.3 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 10/10 · MRSH 3/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Marshall?

Eastern Kentucky 7, Marshall 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

MRSH

21%

Success rate

44%

-0.06

EPA / pass

0.31

-0.25

EPA / rush

0.02

23%

Early-down success

44%

28%

Pass success

35%

13%

Rush success

46%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

57%

Pass rate

24%

9.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

EAST

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

MRSH

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		MRSH
102	Total yards	377
91	Passing yards	114
11	Rushing yards	263
10	First downs	21
2-13	3rd down	6-16
0-0	4th down	1-2
8/24	Comp/Att	8/14
3.8	Yards per pass	8.1
0.4	Yards per rush	4.6
2	Turnovers	2
7-67	Penalties	8-75
25:56	Possession	34:04

Fourth downs

19 calls

EAST

10/10 with the model

nothing given up

MRSH

3/7 with the model

−3.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 8:13 MRSH field goal on 4th & 1 at EAST 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 1/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MRSH 6/15 scoring drives

EASTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· opp 24Q1

EASTPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 16Q1

MRSHFG5 pl, 17 yds· opp 18Q1

EASTINT4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHTD3 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHTD7 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHTD3 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q2

EASTPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2

MRSHPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 6Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 13Q2

MRSHTD7 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

EASTEND1 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2

MRSHFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 15Q3

EASTTD3 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q3

MRSHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 27Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 37Q3

MRSHTD5 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

EASTMISS7 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q3

MRSHPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 31Q3

EASTPUNT2 pl, -1 yds· own 8Q3

MRSHMISS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 23Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q4

MRSHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 1Q4

MRSHFUM5 pl, 30 yds· opp 31Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 7Q4

MRSHEND9 pl, 45 yds· own 18Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:01MRSHJacQai Long 3 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–38
• Q3 13:08EASTJayden West 13 Yd pass from Jordyn Potts (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:08MRSHAdrian Norton 30 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–31
• Q2 12:03MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 30 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–24
• Q1 0:25MRSHJustin Williams-Thomas 3 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–17
• Q1 5:01MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–10
• Q1 8:13MRSHLorcan Quinn 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →