Eastern Illinois vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Illinois

00

Alabama8-2

▸0056

Final

Bryant-Denny Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	0	0	0	0
ALA	14	14	14	14	56

EASTTeam statsALA

34Total yards539

20Pass270

14Rush269

2First downs32

1-113rd down8-11

1Turnovers2

21:51Possession38:09

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:15ALAAK Dear 5 Yd Run (Tucker Cornelius Kick)0–56
• Q4 7:34ALARichard Young 2 Yd Run (Reid Schuback Kick)0–49
• Q3 1:05ALAAustin Mack 20 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–42
• Q3 11:03ALAAK Dear 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–35
• Q2 1:05ALAKevin Riley 2 Yd Run (Peter Notaro Kick)0–28
• Q2 10:04ALAKevin Riley 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:49ALADaniel Hill 7 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:45ALAJam Miller 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ALA −51.5

Against the number

ALA covered

line ALA −51.5

What the numbers say

• EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ALA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 4.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ALA 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff140 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ALA (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ALA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ALA −51.5

Closing total

58.0

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 0 – 56 ALA

Leaders

Eastern Illinois

• PassConnor Wolf 4/8, 20 YDS
• RushCharles Kellom 14 CAR, 25 YDS
• RecLanders Green 1 REC, 15 YDS

Alabama

• PassTy Simpson 11/16, 147 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJam Miller 11 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJaylen Mbakwe 2 REC, 39 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

123

Points / snap

0.46

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ALA up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ALA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky66-13WMemphis vs Bethune-Cookman56-14WWestern Carolina vs Charleston Southern77-28WYale vs Morgan State45-3WMonmouth vs Lehigh49-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

EAST gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 6/9 · ALA 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Illinois vs. Alabama?

Eastern Illinois 0, Alabama 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

ALA

13%

Success rate

69%

-0.48

EPA / pass

0.37

-0.28

EPA / rush

0.45

14%

Early-down success

69%

17%

Pass success

72%

11%

Rush success

67%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

43%

Stuffed rush rate

2%

30%

Pass rate

39%

10.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.7

EAST

10.5 yards to go on 3rd down

40 scrimmage snaps

ALA

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		ALA
34	Total yards	539
20	Passing yards	270
14	Rushing yards	269
2	First downs	32
1-11	3rd down	8-11
0-1	4th down	1-2
4/9	Comp/Att	23/30
2.2	Yards per pass	9.0
0.5	Yards per rush	5.5
1	Turnovers	2
3-35	Penalties	4-29
21:51	Possession	38:09

Fourth downs

13 calls

EAST

6/9 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

ALA

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 14:52 EAST punt on 4th & 1 at EAST 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 0/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ALA 8/12 scoring drives

EASTINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

ALATD8 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 13Q1

ALATD5 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

ALAMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 13Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1

ALATD8 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2

EASTPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2

ALAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q2

EASTDOWNS4 pl, -15 yds· opp 16Q2

ALATD9 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

ALAINT4 pl, 29 yds· own 33Q2

ALATD8 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

ALADOWNS11 pl, 74 yds· own 22Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 4Q3

ALATD2 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 12Q3

ALATD13 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

ALATD7 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q4

EASTEND2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:15ALAAK Dear 5 Yd Run (Tucker Cornelius Kick)0–56
• Q4 7:34ALARichard Young 2 Yd Run (Reid Schuback Kick)0–49
• Q3 1:05ALAAustin Mack 20 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–42
• Q3 11:03ALAAK Dear 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–35
• Q2 1:05ALAKevin Riley 2 Yd Run (Peter Notaro Kick)0–28
• Q2 10:04ALAKevin Riley 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:49ALADaniel Hill 7 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:45ALAJam Miller 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →