East Texas A&M vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
East Texas A&M0-1
Florida State1-0
▸Final
Doak Campbell Stadium
EASTTeam statsFSU
197Total yards729
92Pass368
105Rush361
9First downs29
3-123rd down10-14
2Turnovers1
28:01Possession31:59
- Q4 1:54FSUZay Parks 13 Yd Run (Brunno Reus Kick)3–77
- Q4 9:30EASTOzlo Rigby 21 Yd Field Goal 3–70
- Q3 2:13FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 53 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–70
- Q3 8:57FSUOusmane Kromah 43 Yd pass from Kevin Sperry (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–63
- Q3 12:06FSUAmaree Williams 35 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–56
- Q2 0:48FSUJayvan Boggs 3 Yd pass from Kevin Sperry (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–49
- Q2 7:21FSUMicahi Danzy 53 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q2 11:37FSUGavin Sawchuk 53 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q2 14:57FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:18FSUDuce Robinson 42 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:48FSUDuce Robinson 82 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:14FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
FSU −44.5
Against the number
FSU covered
line FSU −44.5
What the numbers say
- EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.3
- EAST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 32% success rate
Kickoff138 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
FSU (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 100%
Closing line
FSU −44.5
Closing total
57.5
Model line
—
Actual result
EAST 3 – 77 FSU
East Texas A&M
- PassJack Jacobs 2/3, 43 YDS
- RushKJ Shankle 8 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecChristian Jourdain 3 REC, 28 YDS
Florida State
- PassThomas Castellanos 8/11, 237 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSamuel Singleton Jr. 4 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDuce Robinson 5 REC, 173 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 70 entering the 4th quarter. Across 77 historically comparable game states (within ±7 pts and ±10 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
FSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of East Texas A&M vs. Florida State?
East Texas A&M 3, Florida State 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
EAST
FSU
32%
Success rate
57%
-0.30
EPA / pass
1.50
-0.01
EPA / rush
0.54
35%
Early-down success
54%
41%
Pass success
67%
27%
Rush success
54%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
19%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
20%
34%
Pass rate
28%
8.5
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.3
EAST
8.5 yards to go on 3rd down
50 scrimmage snaps
FSU
6.3 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
| EAST | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Total yards | 729 |
| 92 | Passing yards | 368 |
| 105 | Rushing yards | 361 |
| 9 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 10-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 7/13 | Comp/Att | 16/20 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 18.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 28:01 | Possession | 31:59 |
EAST
8/9 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
FSU
2/2 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q4 9:30 EAST field goal on 4th & 4 at FSU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishEAST 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 11/12 scoring drives
EASTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD12 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
EASTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD1 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
EASTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD4 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1
EASTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
FSUTD6 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q1
EASTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD4 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2
EASTINT6 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
EASTPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
EASTEND2 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2
FSUTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
FSUTD3 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q3
EASTPUNT6 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3
FSUTD4 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q3
EASTDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3
FSUFUM5 pl, 11 yds· opp 33Q3
EASTFG7 pl, 49 yds· own 47Q4
FSUTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
EASTEND3 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 1:54FSUZay Parks 13 Yd Run (Brunno Reus Kick)3–77
- Q4 9:30EASTOzlo Rigby 21 Yd Field Goal 3–70
- Q3 2:13FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 53 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–70
- Q3 8:57FSUOusmane Kromah 43 Yd pass from Kevin Sperry (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–63
- Q3 12:06FSUAmaree Williams 35 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–56
- Q2 0:48FSUJayvan Boggs 3 Yd pass from Kevin Sperry (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–49
- Q2 7:21FSUMicahi Danzy 53 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q2 11:37FSUGavin Sawchuk 53 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q2 14:57FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:18FSUDuce Robinson 42 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:48FSUDuce Robinson 82 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:14FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →