East Carolina vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsTEM
- Q4 12:06ECUNick Mazzie 46 Yd Field Goal 45–14
- Q3 3:52ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)42–14
- Q3 8:42ECULondon Montgomery 19 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)35–14
- Q2 2:59ECUYannick Smith 59 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)28–14
- Q2 6:15ECUMike Wright Jr. 15 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:24TEMKeveun Mason 29 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:31TEMJay Ducker 4 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:32ECUAnthony Smith 45 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:08ECUYannick Smith 7 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKatin Houser 19/24, 256 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLondon Montgomery 14 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecYannick Smith 5 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- PassEvan Simon 11/20, 80 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKeveun Mason 7 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColin Chase 5 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:15ECU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 M.Wright Jr. rush left for 15 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:24TEM +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush left for 29 yards gain to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 13:08ECU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #1 Y.Smith caught at TEM00, for 7 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 2:59ECU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #1 Y.Smith caught at TEM42, for 59 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:31TEM +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:32ECU +11%
No Huddle #9 A.Smith rush right for 45 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Temple?
East Carolina 45, Temple 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| ECU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 614 | Total yards | 233 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 151 |
| 358 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 26 | First downs | 11 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/24 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 10.7 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-44 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 31:27 | Possession | 28:33 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:06ECUNick Mazzie 46 Yd Field Goal 45–14
- Q3 3:52ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)42–14
- Q3 8:42ECULondon Montgomery 19 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)35–14
- Q2 2:59ECUYannick Smith 59 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)28–14
- Q2 6:15ECUMike Wright Jr. 15 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:24TEMKeveun Mason 29 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:31TEMJay Ducker 4 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:32ECUAnthony Smith 45 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:08ECUYannick Smith 7 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1319, ECU Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +6 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 12–10 · East Carolina has won 5 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| ECU | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#46) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#100) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | -3 / +9 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 3.17 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →