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East Carolina vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 1, 6:00 PM
Lincoln Financial FieldConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 14 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 45 |
| TEM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEM 1319
ECU 1530
Projected spread
TEM +6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
67% to win
Market spread
TEM +5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
33%
TEM · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEM Elo 1319, ECU Elo 1530) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEM +6 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TEM (top)ECU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TEM 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ECU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEM
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.2046%
Success rate
44%1.18
Explosiveness
1.183.76
Pts / opportunity
4.5869%
Power success
60%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.2838%
Success rate allowed
46%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.2619%
Havoc rate
15%28%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- TEM pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge TEM.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. TEM rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge TEM.
- TEM rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. ECU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge TEM.
Drive-by-drive
ECU 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TEM 2/11 scoring drives
ECUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TEMPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q1
ECUINT4 pl, 33 yds· own 24Q1
TEMINT3 pl, -2 yds· own 31Q1
ECUTD1 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1
TEMPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1
ECUFUM1 pl, 8 yds· own 19Q1
TEMTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
ECUPUNT8 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
TEMTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ECUTD12 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2
TEMPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2
ECUTD3 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2
TEMPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q2
ECUEND3 pl, 6 yds· own 9Q2
TEMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
ECUTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
TEMPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 24Q3
ECUTD8 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q3
TEMPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 27Q3
ECUFG11 pl, 45 yds· own 27Q3
TEMDOWNS10 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q4
ECUEND9 pl, 33 yds· own 6Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ECU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
ECU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Temple?
East Carolina 45, Temple 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.