Duke vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsCAL
- Q4 5:50DUKENate Sheppard 46 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)45–21
- Q4 8:22DUKECooper Barkate 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)38–21
- Q2 0:00DUKETodd Pelino 25 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 1:10DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)28–21
- Q2 5:50DUKEQue'Sean Brown 26 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:47DUKEAnderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:17CALKendrick Raphael 4 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:38DUKENate Sheppard 12 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:20CALKendrick Raphael 5 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:11CALJordan King 6 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.5
- CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassDarian Mensah 22/30, 265 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 12 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- RecQue'Sean Brown 7 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 20/31, 245 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushKendrick Raphael 18 CAR, 67 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrond Grizzell 4 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:50DUKE +22%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 1:10DUKE +21%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q1 9:11CAL +18%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q2 7:47DUKE +18%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 12:17CAL +17%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q1 2:38DUKE +17%
Nate Sheppard run for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. California?
Duke 45, California 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| DUKE | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 443 | Total yards | 286 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 41 |
| 24 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/30 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-63 | Penalties | 6-43 |
| 31:03 | Possession | 28:57 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:50DUKENate Sheppard 46 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)45–21
- Q4 8:22DUKECooper Barkate 10 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)38–21
- Q2 0:00DUKETodd Pelino 25 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 1:10DUKEAnderson Castle 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)28–21
- Q2 5:50DUKEQue'Sean Brown 26 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:47DUKEAnderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:17CALKendrick Raphael 4 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:38DUKENate Sheppard 12 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:20CALKendrick Raphael 5 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:11CALJordan King 6 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1455, DUKE Elo 1598 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +3.3 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DUKE | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#60) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#85) |
| +9 / +7 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 3.04 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →