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Delaware vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 5:00 PM
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| WAKE | 15 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 52 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WAKE 1444
DEL 1364
Projected spread
WAKE -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
WAKE
66% to win
Market spread
WAKE -17.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DEL
11.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
WAKE · market 88%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WAKE Elo 1444, DEL Elo 1364) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -5.6 (66% to win) — 11.9 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -17.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WAKE (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WAKE 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
DEL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWAKE
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1544%
Success rate
38%1.25
Explosiveness
1.433.52
Pts / opportunity
3.2369%
Power success
79%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.0342%
Success rate allowed
35%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2016%
Havoc rate
18%21%
Stuff rate
27%Key matchups · Pro
- DEL pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge DEL.
- WAKE rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. DEL rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge DEL.
- DEL rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
DEL 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →WAKE 9/11 scoring drives
DELPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
WAKETD15 pl, 76 yds· own 16Q1
DELPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
WAKETD9 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
DELTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WAKEFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q2
DELPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2
WAKETD4 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2
WAKEFG5 pl, -8 yds· opp 19Q2
DELPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2
WAKEINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 43Q2
DELFUM4 pl, 25 yds· opp 46Q2
WAKETD1 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q2
DELEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
WAKETD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
DELPUNT13 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q3
WAKETD2 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3
DELDOWNS14 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3
WAKEFG8 pl, 33 yds· own 38Q4
DELTD13 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
WAKEINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
DELEND4 pl, 21 yds· opp 26Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WAKE up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WAKE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Wake Forest?
Delaware 14, Wake Forest 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WAKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.