Delaware vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 1:59DELMax Patterson 25 Yd pass from Braden Streeter (Nate Reed Kick)14–52
- Q4 8:44WAKEConnor Calvert 47 Yd Field Goal 7–52
- Q3 3:37WAKECarlos Hernandez 93 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–49
- Q3 10:08WAKESterling Berkhalter 19 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:19WAKECarlos Hernandez 79 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–35
- Q2 2:15WAKEConnor Calvert 44 Yd Field Goal 7–28
- Q2 4:39WAKERobby Ashford 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)7–25
- Q2 9:40WAKEConnor Calvert 44 Yd Field Goal 7–18
- Q2 12:47DELViron Ellison Jr. 43 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–15
- Q1 2:13WAKETy Clark III 13 Yd Run (Sawyer Racanelli Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 7:08WAKEDemond Claiborne 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNick Minicucci 21/30, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- RushViron Ellison Jr. 9 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecViron Ellison Jr. 7 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRobby Ashford 15/22, 292 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushChris Barnes 1 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecCarlos Hernandez 5 REC, 197 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:08WAKE +14%
PENALTY Wake False Start (#84 E.Falayi) 5 yards from Delawa03 to Delawa08. NO PLAY
- Q1 2:13WAKE +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Delawa00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #9 S.Racanelli rush attempt Successful
- Q2 12:47DEL +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 N.Minicucci pass complete short left to #23 V.Ellison Jr. caught at Wake42, for 43 yards to the Wake00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:39WAKE +8%
Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush right for 4 yards gain to the Delawa00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:40WAKE +6%
#90 C.Calvert field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Wake Forest?
Delaware 14, Wake Forest 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| DEL | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total yards | 577 |
| 233 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 263 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 32/47 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 12.1 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 33:03 | Possession | 26:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:21 DEL punt on 4th & 14 at WAKE 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59DELMax Patterson 25 Yd pass from Braden Streeter (Nate Reed Kick)14–52
- Q4 8:44WAKEConnor Calvert 47 Yd Field Goal 7–52
- Q3 3:37WAKECarlos Hernandez 93 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–49
- Q3 10:08WAKESterling Berkhalter 19 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:19WAKECarlos Hernandez 79 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–35
- Q2 2:15WAKEConnor Calvert 44 Yd Field Goal 7–28
- Q2 4:39WAKERobby Ashford 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)7–25
- Q2 9:40WAKEConnor Calvert 44 Yd Field Goal 7–18
- Q2 12:47DELViron Ellison Jr. 43 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)7–15
- Q1 2:13WAKETy Clark III 13 Yd Run (Sawyer Racanelli Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 7:08WAKEDemond Claiborne 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1444, DEL Elo 1364 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -5.6 (66% to win) — 11.9 points clear of DEL's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#42) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -4 / -13 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →