Delaware State vs. Delaware: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Delaware State

0017

Delaware

▸0035

Final

Delaware Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DELA	0	3	7	7	17
DEL	0	14	7	14	35

DELATeam statsDEL

349Total yards428

149Pass291

200Rush137

21First downs26

6-143rd down8-13

2Turnovers1

31:53Possession28:07

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:15DELJake Thaw 50 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)17–35
• Q4 8:10DELAMarquis Gillis 39 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)17–28
• Q4 10:44DELKahlil Ali 45 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed Kick)10–28
• Q3 7:15DELJa'Carree Kelly 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)10–21
• Q3 10:29DELAKaiden Bennett 23 Yd Run (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)10–14
• Q2 0:33DELKyre Duplessis 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)3–14
• Q2 3:44DELNick Minicucci 8 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)3–7
• Q2 6:46DELAPatrick Fisher-Butler 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

DEL −30.5

Against the number

DELA covered

line DEL −30.5

What the numbers say

• DELA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DEL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DEL 100%50%DELA 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DEL (top)DELA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DEL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DEL −30.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DELA 17 – 35 DEL

Leaders

Delaware State

• PassKaiden Bennett 11/23, 135 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushMarquis Gillis 17 CAR, 123 YDS
• RecMarquis Gillis 3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD

Delaware

• PassNick Minicucci 27/35, 261 YDS, 3 TD
• RushNick Minicucci 9 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJake Thaw 7 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.37

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DEL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

DEL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUAlbany vs Fordham34-13WIowa vs Utah State24-14WDelaware vs Stony Brook37-13WTexas State vs Baylor42-31WKentucky vs Eastern Kentucky28-17

Fourth downs

12 calls

DEL gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.DELA 6/6 · DEL 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Delaware State vs. Delaware?

Delaware State 17, Delaware 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DELA

DEL

44%

Success rate

52%

-0.12

EPA / pass

0.39

0.29

EPA / rush

0.30

42%

Early-down success

48%

54%

Pass success

48%

37%

Rush success

60%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

41%

Pass rate

67%

9.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

DELA

9.6 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

DEL

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DELA		DEL
349	Total yards	428
149	Passing yards	291
200	Rushing yards	137
21	First downs	26
6-14	3rd down	8-13
2-2	4th down	2-2
13/26	Comp/Att	31/44
5.7	Yards per pass	6.6
4.9	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	1
13-109	Penalties	6-55
31:53	Possession	28:07

Fourth downs

12 calls

DELA

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

DEL

3/5 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 12:58 DEL punt on 4th & 2 at DEL 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DELA 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →DEL 4/9 scoring drives

DELPUNT10 pl, 24 yds· own 23Q1

DELAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q1

DELFUM9 pl, 22 yds· opp 44Q1

DELAPUNT11 pl, 30 yds· own 22Q1

DELPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 10Q1

DELAFG13 pl, 50 yds· own 27Q2

DELTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DELAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

DELTD11 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

DELAEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

DELATD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

DELTD7 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q3

DELAINT5 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q3

DELMISS13 pl, 63 yds· own 7Q3

DELATD5 pl, 18 yds· own 30Q4

DELATD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q4

DELTD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

DELAPUNT10 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4

DELEND4 pl, 30 yds· own 2Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:15DELJake Thaw 50 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)17–35
• Q4 8:10DELAMarquis Gillis 39 Yd pass from Kaiden Bennett (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)17–28
• Q4 10:44DELKahlil Ali 45 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed Kick)10–28
• Q3 7:15DELJa'Carree Kelly 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)10–21
• Q3 10:29DELAKaiden Bennett 23 Yd Run (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)10–14
• Q2 0:33DELKyre Duplessis 4 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)3–14
• Q2 3:44DELNick Minicucci 8 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)3–7
• Q2 6:46DELAPatrick Fisher-Butler 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →