Colorado vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsWVU
- Q4 1:16COLOAlejandro Mata 38 Yd Field Goal22–29
- Q4 4:15WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)19–29
- Q4 14:51COLOAlejandro Mata 35 Yd Field Goal19–22
- Q3 1:47WVUKade Hensley 37 Yd Field Goal16–22
- Q3 7:19COLOOmarion Miller 23 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata Kick)16–19
- Q2 0:03WVUKade Hensley 41 Yd Field Goal9–19
- Q2 0:45COLOJoseph Williams 9 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata PAT failed)9–16
- Q2 3:29WVURyan Ward 3 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)3–16
- Q2 6:02COLOAlejandro Mata 23 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q1 0:19WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–9
- Q1 4:35WVUTeam Safety 0–2
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.3 vs 3rd & 7.3
- PassJulian Lewis 22/35, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDre'lon Miller 10 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecOmarion Miller 6 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- PassScotty Fox Jr. 17/28, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDiore Hubbard 16 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecDiore Hubbard 6 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:19COLO +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Lewis pass complete deep left to #4 O.Miller caught at WVU00, for 23 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:19WVU +18%
Shotgun #18 C.Jones Jr rush right for 2 yards gain to the COL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:29WVU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short right to #84 R.Ward caught at COL01, for 3 yards to the COL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 4:15WVU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 C.Jones Jr rush right for 4 yards gain to the COL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 9:39WVU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. rush left for 13 yards gain to the COL44 (#7 T.Byard), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:45COLO +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Lewis pass complete short to #8 J.Williams caught at WVU00, for 9 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. West Virginia?
Colorado 22, West Virginia 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| COLO | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Total yards | 369 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 51 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 22/35 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 3-36 |
| 29:24 | Possession | 30:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:02 COLO field goal on 4th & 4 at WVU 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:16COLOAlejandro Mata 38 Yd Field Goal22–29
- Q4 4:15WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)19–29
- Q4 14:51COLOAlejandro Mata 35 Yd Field Goal19–22
- Q3 1:47WVUKade Hensley 37 Yd Field Goal16–22
- Q3 7:19COLOOmarion Miller 23 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata Kick)16–19
- Q2 0:03WVUKade Hensley 41 Yd Field Goal9–19
- Q2 0:45COLOJoseph Williams 9 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Alejandro Mata PAT failed)9–16
- Q2 3:29WVURyan Ward 3 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)3–16
- Q2 6:02COLOAlejandro Mata 23 Yd Field Goal3–9
- Q1 0:19WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 2 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–9
- Q1 4:35WVUTeam Safety 0–2
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1340, COLO Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU -0.4 (52% to win) — 6.1 points clear of COLO's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| COLO | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#101) | CORE overall | -10.6 (#98) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | -11 / -1 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 1.51 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →