Allen E. Paulson StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 17 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 40 |
| GASO | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GASO 1314
CCU 1318
Projected spread
GASO -2.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
GASO
57% to win
Market spread
GASO -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
57%
GASO · market 57%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1314, CCU Elo 1318) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GASO (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GASO 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →GASO 8/16 scoring drives
GASOPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1
CCUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 48Q1
GASOTD5 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GASO up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
87%
GASO went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern?
Coastal Carolina 40, Georgia Southern 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.