Sat, Nov 15, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 17 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 40 |
| GASO | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GASO Elo 1314, CCU Elo 1318) plus home-field advantage. That projects GASO -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
GASO up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Coastal Carolina 40, Georgia Southern 45.
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GASO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Arnold pass complete deep right to #4 C.Brown caught at CCU44, for 73 yards to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:52, 1ST DOWN #0 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #89 J.Wheeler)
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Graves pass complete deep right to #8 J.Tucker caught at GASO45, for 75 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:52, 1ST DOWN #91 K.Afrookhteh kick attempt good (H: #29 E.Sebafundi, LS: #43 N.Merchant)
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Arnold rush middle for 62 yards gain to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:58, 1ST DOWN #0 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #89 J.Wheeler)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →