Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsGASO
- Q4 11:32CCUDominic Knicely 16 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)40–45
- Q4 14:57GASOTripp Bryant 29 Yd Field Goal 33–45
- Q3 10:52GASOCamden Brown 73 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Tripp Bryant Kick)33–42
- Q3 11:24CCUKarmello English 12 Yd pass from Robby Washington (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–35
- Q2 3:24CCUMalcolm Gillie 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–35
- Q2 3:34GASOCamden Brown 7 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)20–35
- Q2 7:39CCUPhilippe Laforge 51 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q2 12:43GASOOJ Arnold 41 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–28
- Q1 0:47CCUKian Afrookhteh 41 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q1 3:58GASOOJ Arnold 62 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–21
- Q1 4:14CCUSamari Collier 5 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:38GASOCamden Brown 4 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:52CCUJameson Tucker 75 Yd pass from Bryson Graves (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:04GASOOJ Arnold 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTad Hudson 15/28, 173 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSamari Collier 6 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJameson Tucker 4 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJC French IV 22/33, 264 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 21 CAR, 267 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCamden Brown 5 REC, 133 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:32CCU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Knicely rush middle for 16 yards gain to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:52GASO +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Arnold pass complete deep right to #4 C.Brown caught at CCU44, for 73 yards to the CCU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 11:24CCU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Washington pass complete short to #0 K.English caught at GASO00, for 12 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Hudson pass attempt failed
- Q4 8:11GASO +15%
#25 A.Smith punt 42 yards to the CCU00, Touchback
- Q4 3:47GASO +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Arnold rush middle for 2 yards loss to the GASO08 (#2 J.Wayne; #52 I.Diawara)
- Q4 6:22GASO +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Arnold rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GASO30 (#19 S.McDowell; #55 T.Brown)
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern?
Coastal Carolina 40, Georgia Southern 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| CCU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 482 | Total yards | 653 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 312 |
| 24 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-76 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 28:42 | Possession | 31:18 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:57 GASO field goal on 4th & 2 at CCU 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:32CCUDominic Knicely 16 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)40–45
- Q4 14:57GASOTripp Bryant 29 Yd Field Goal 33–45
- Q3 10:52GASOCamden Brown 73 Yd pass from OJ Arnold (Tripp Bryant Kick)33–42
- Q3 11:24CCUKarmello English 12 Yd pass from Robby Washington (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–35
- Q2 3:24CCUMalcolm Gillie 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–35
- Q2 3:34GASOCamden Brown 7 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)20–35
- Q2 7:39CCUPhilippe Laforge 51 Yd Field Goal 20–28
- Q2 12:43GASOOJ Arnold 41 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)17–28
- Q1 0:47CCUKian Afrookhteh 41 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q1 3:58GASOOJ Arnold 62 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)14–21
- Q1 4:14CCUSamari Collier 5 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:38GASOCamden Brown 4 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Tripp Bryant Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:52CCUJameson Tucker 75 Yd pass from Bryson Graves (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:04GASOOJ Arnold 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1314, CCU Elo 1318 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia Southern leads 8–4 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| CCU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#105) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | +2 / +17 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 3.06 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →