| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TULN | 14 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1575, CLT Elo 1035) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -24 (96% to win) — 7.0 points of value on CLT versus the market line of -31.
TULN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Charlotte 0, Tulane 27.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:33) Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass intercepted by #19 K.Schmitz at CLT00 #19 K.Schmitz return 21 yards to the CLT21 (#12 J.Retzlaff)
(07:06) Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass intercepted by #6 J.Conley at CLT13 #6 J.Conley return 0 yards to the CLT13 (#15 Z.Lewis Jr.)
(02:10) Shotgun Charlotte rush middle for 15 yards loss to the TLN40, End Of Play
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