Central Michigan vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 4:13CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 12:01SJSUDanny Scudero 45 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)13–14
- Q2 4:20SJSULeland Smith 11 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)13–7
- Q2 8:26CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 0:10CMUCade Graham 34 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 3:14CMUTrey Cornist 29 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAngel Flores 3/3, 59 YDS
- RushNahree Biggins 18 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecTommy McIntosh 2 REC, 61 YDS
- PassWalker Eget 24/43, 308 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushFloyd Chalk 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecDanny Scudero 9 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:13CMU +48%
Cade Graham 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:53CMU +43%
Declan Duley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Thomas at the SJSU 29
- Q4 0:34SJSU +42%
Walker Eget pass complete to Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa for 8 yds to the SJSU 37
- Q4 0:00CMU +40%
Denis Lynch 56 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 0:27SJSU +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun Eget,Walker pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY CMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SJSU43 to SJSU48. NO PLAY
- Q4 0:01CMU +24%
Walker Eget pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. San José State?
Central Michigan 16, San José State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CMU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 383 |
| 115 | Passing yards | 308 |
| 236 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 8/13 | Comp/Att | 24/45 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-33 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 33:45 | Possession | 26:15 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:29 CMU punt on 4th & 6 at SJSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:13CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 12:01SJSUDanny Scudero 45 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)13–14
- Q2 4:20SJSULeland Smith 11 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Denis Lynch Kick)13–7
- Q2 8:26CMUCade Graham 28 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 0:10CMUCade Graham 34 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 3:14CMUTrey Cornist 29 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1484, CMU Elo 1235 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -12.4 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#65 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #17 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| CMU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#87) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#78) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →