Ford FieldNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| NU | 0 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NU 1524
CMU 1282
Projected spread
NU -9.7
neutral site
Model pick
NU
76% to win
Market spread
NU -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
CMU
3.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
76%
NU · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1524, CMU Elo 1282) on a neutral field. That projects NU -9.7 (76% to win) — 3.3 points of value on CMU versus the market line of -13.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NU (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge CMU.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NU 4/11 scoring drives
NUDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
CMUMISS6 pl, 8 yds· opp 33Q1
NUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
NU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Northwestern?
Central Michigan 7, Northwestern 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.