Michigan StadiumClosing line: MICH -27.5 · MICH covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MICH | 14 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 63 |
Team stats
CMUthis game · better side highlightedMICH
142
Total yards
62560
Passing yards
23582
Rushing yards
3908
First downs
356-15 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1742
CMU 1204
Projected spread
MICH -23.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
96% to win
Market spread
MICH -27.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CMU
3.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
MICH · market 94%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1742, CMU Elo 1204) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -23.9 (96% to win) — 3.6 points of value on CMU versus the market line of -27.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MICH (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MICH 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge MICH.
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CMU.
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MICH.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MICH 9/12 scoring drives
MICHTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CMUPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1
MICHTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MICH up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MICH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Michigan?
Central Michigan 3, Michigan 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.