Central Michigan vs. Michigan: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Central Michigan1-1

Michigan1-1

▸

Final

Michigan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CMU	0	3	0	0	3
MICH	14	21	14	14	63

CMUTeam statsMICH

139Total yards616

60Pass235

79Rush381

8First downs35

6-153rd down8-11

2Turnovers1

26:53Possession33:07

Q4 9:00MICHJasper Parker 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)3–63
Q4 14:01MICHBryson Kuzdzal 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)3–56
Q3 3:12MICHBryce Underwood 18 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)3–49
Q3 8:27MICHJordan Marshall 4 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)3–42
Q2 0:09MICHJordan Marshall 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)3–35
Q2 1:51CMUCade Graham 22 Yd Field Goal 3–28
Q2 9:23MICHAndrew Marsh 23 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–28
Q2 12:09MICHBryce Underwood 20 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–21
Q1 7:21MICHSemaj Morgan 32 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–14
Q1 10:56MICHJustice Haynes 2 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

MICH −23.9

market MICH −27.5

Against the number

MICH covered

line MICH −27.5

What the numbers say

CMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MICH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.1

MICH favored ↑50%CMU favored ↓

GridpexMICH 100%

Closing line

MICH −27.5

Closing total

42.5

Model line

MICH −23.9

Actual result

CMU 3 – 63 MICH

Central Michigan

PassJoe Labas 4/8, 36 YDS, 1 INT
RushAngel Flores 9 CAR, 76 YDS
RecJustin Ruffin Jr. 2 REC, 23 YDS

Michigan

PassBryce Underwood 16/25, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushBryce Underwood 9 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD
RecSemaj Morgan 4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD

25.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MICH up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MICH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10 WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0 WClemson vs App State66-20 WButler vs Hanover College53-0 WNorth Carolina Central vs Delaware State52-10

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Michigan?

Central Michigan 3, Michigan 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.

CMU

MICH

21%

Success rate

63%

-0.06

EPA / pass

0.63

-0.26

EPA / rush

0.40

14%

Early-down success

62%

22%

Pass success

65%

20%

Rush success

62%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

43%

Pass rate

32%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

CMU

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

MICH

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

81 scrimmage snaps

CMU		MICH
139	Total yards	616
60	Passing yards	235
79	Rushing yards	381
8	First downs	35
6-15	3rd down	8-11
0-2	4th down	1-2
11/20	Comp/Att	16/25
3.0	Yards per pass	9.4
2.4	Yards per rush	6.9
2	Turnovers	1
1-6	Penalties	4-45
26:53	Possession	33:07

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MICH 1742

CMU 1204

Projected spread

MICH -23.9

incl. home edge

Model pick

MICH

93% to win

Market spread

MICH -27.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

CMU

3.6 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

93%

MICH · market 94%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1742, CMU Elo 1204 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -23.9 (93% to win) — 3.6 points clear of CMU's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

CMU2025 season · national rank shownMICH

332.2112th

Total yards / game

397.958th

5.587th

Yards / play

6.229th

167.1118th

Passing yards / game

186.8107th

165.159th

Rushing yards / game

211.214th

34.1%115th

3rd down %

43.6%32nd

356.553rd

Yards allowed / game

323.624th

40.6%87th

3rd down % allowed

37.4%52nd

+535th

Turnover margin

+254th

6.066th

Penalties / game

4.413th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

CMU		MICH
-6.9 (#87)	CORE overall	+17.4 (#22)
-4 / +3	offense / defense	+11 / -6
1.94	points / drive	2.70
2.13	allowed / drive	1.97
31%	three-and-outs	25%
-13	pass over expected	-2

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

CMUTeam statsMICH

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Michigan?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Central Michigan vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap

CMUTeam statsMICH

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Michigan?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups