BYU
8-0·Big 12· Elo 1722
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TTU | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 29 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1903, BYU Elo 1722) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -9.6 (76% to win) — 3.9 points of value on BYU versus the market line of -13.5.
TTU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 7, Texas Tech 29.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass incomplete short middle to #7 T.Carter Jr. thrown to BYU00 broken up by #3 R.Damuni, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
End of 2nd quarter.
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