Warren McGuirk Alumni StadiumConference gameClosing line: BGSU +-14 · BGSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 14 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 45 |
| MASS | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Team stats
BGSUthis game · better side highlightedMASS
406
Total yards
292128
Passing yards
223278
Rushing yards
6919
First downs
163-8 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MASS 748
BGSU 1230
Projected spread
MASS +16.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
89% to win
Market spread
MASS +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
2.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
11%
MASS · market 18%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MASS Elo 748, BGSU Elo 1230) plus home-field advantage. That projects MASS +16.9 (11% to win) — 2.9 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of +14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MASS (top)BGSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MASS 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. MASS pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MASS.
- MASS pass offense (0.02 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- BGSU rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. MASS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge MASS.
Drive-by-drive
BGSU 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MASS 2/11 scoring drives
BGSUTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUTD2 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BGSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
BGSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts?
Bowling Green 45, Massachusetts 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BGSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BGSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.