Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsMASS
- Q4 1:56BGSUPaSean Wimberly 1 Yd Run (Travis Kenner Kick)45–14
- Q4 7:38BGSUJackson Kleather 42 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q3 0:41BGSUAustyn Dendy 24 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)35–14
- Q2 0:29MASSMax Dowling 2 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)28–14
- Q2 3:30MASSReece Adkins 20 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:44BGSUBlane Cleaver 4 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:43BGSUAustyn Dendy 8 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:18BGSUBrennan Ridley 87 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:18BGSUAustyn Dendy 11 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassHunter Najm 7/9, 128 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAustyn Dendy 22 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrennan Ridley 1 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGrant Jordan 22/35, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushElijah Faulkner 8 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 10 REC, 138 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Massachusetts?
Bowling Green 45, Massachusetts 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BGSU) was correct.
| BGSU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 406 | Total yards | 292 |
| 128 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 278 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 7/9 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 14.2 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 1-7 |
| 32:35 | Possession | 27:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:25 BGSU punt on 4th & 2 at MASS 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.53 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56BGSUPaSean Wimberly 1 Yd Run (Travis Kenner Kick)45–14
- Q4 7:38BGSUJackson Kleather 42 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q3 0:41BGSUAustyn Dendy 24 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)35–14
- Q2 0:29MASSMax Dowling 2 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)28–14
- Q2 3:30MASSReece Adkins 20 Yd pass from Grant Jordan (Derek Morris Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:44BGSUBlane Cleaver 4 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:43BGSUAustyn Dendy 8 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:18BGSUBrennan Ridley 87 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:18BGSUAustyn Dendy 11 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 748, BGSU Elo 1230 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +16.9 (15% to win) — 2.9 points clear of BGSU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BGSU | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | -40.3 (#136) |
| -16 / +3 | offense / defense | -22 / +18 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 3.71 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 43% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →