Rynearson StadiumConference gameClosing line: EMU -3 · EMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| EMU | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Team stats
BGSUthis game · better side highlightedEMU
259
Total yards
385129
Passing yards
210130
Rushing yards
17514
First downs
254-11 · 36%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
EMU 1220
BGSU 1253
Projected spread
EMU -1.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
EMU
53% to win
Market spread
EMU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
53%
EMU · market 56%
Our model blends Elo ratings (EMU Elo 1220, BGSU Elo 1253) plus home-field advantage. That projects EMU -1.1 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
EMU (top)BGSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- BGSU rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
BGSU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →EMU 5/11 scoring drives
BGSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
EMUTD9 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
BGSUTD4 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
EMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
EMU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Eastern Michigan?
Bowling Green 21, Eastern Michigan 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (EMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had EMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.