Boise State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 10:51SDSUGabriel Plascencia 47 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 1:10SDSUJayden Denegal 8 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:29BOISDylan Riley 9 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:15SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMax Cutforth 12/18, 104 YDS
- RushDylan Riley 21 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Penry 3 REC, 50 YDS
- PassJayden Denegal 6/10, 17 YDS
- RushLucky Sutton 25 CAR, 150 YDS
- RecMikey Welsh 3 REC, 22 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:10SDSU +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:51SDSU +22%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q2 13:13BOIS +21%
Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 20 yards gain to the BSU45 fumbled by #26 S.Gaines at BSU45 forced by #0 B.Phillips, out of bounds at BSU45, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 13:15SDSU +20%
No Huddle #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:35SDSU +9%
#93 H.Green punt 41 yards to the BSU00, Touchback
- Q4 3:38SDSU +8%
#93 H.Green punt 39 yards to the BSU19
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. San Diego State?
Boise State 7, San Diego State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total yards | 294 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 17 |
| 164 | Rushing yards | 277 |
| 14 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 6/10 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 1.7 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 31:05 | Possession | 28:55 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:54 SDSU punt on 4th & 2 at BOIS 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:51SDSUGabriel Plascencia 47 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 1:10SDSUJayden Denegal 8 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:29BOISDylan Riley 9 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:15SDSUJayden Denegal 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1480, BOIS Elo 1616 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +3 (43% to win) — 5.0 points clear of BOIS's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 6–5 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →