Snapdragon StadiumConference gameClosing line: SDSU -2 · SDSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SDSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
Team stats
BOISthis game · better side highlightedSDSU
268
Total yards
294104
Passing yards
17164
Rushing yards
27714
First downs
125-14 · 36%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1480
BOIS 1616
Projected spread
SDSU +3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
59% to win
Market spread
SDSU -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
BOIS
5.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
41%
SDSU · market 54%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1480, BOIS Elo 1616) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +3 (41% to win) — 5.0 points of value on BOIS versus the market line of -2.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- SDSU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 3/10 scoring drives
BOISPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 29Q1
BOISPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
SDSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. San Diego State?
Boise State 7, San Diego State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.