Sun, Nov 16, 3:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| SDSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1480, BOIS Elo 1616) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +3 (41% to win) — 5.0 points of value on BOIS versus the market line of -2.
SDSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boise State 7, San Diego State 17.
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Washington rush middle for 41 yards gain to the BSU39 (#0 T.Benefield), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(02:38) #7 L.Sutton rush left for 27 yards gain to the BSU23 (#0 T.Benefield; #10 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWN
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Denegal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #11 G.Plascencia kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Herranen, LS: #50 T.Chavez)
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