Ball State vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsWMU
- Q4 3:42WMUCade Conley 1 Yd pass from Brady Jones (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–42
- Q4 8:26WMUBroc Lowry 37 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–35
- Q3 7:59WMUAveion Chenault 14 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–28
- Q2 8:16WMUJalen Buckley 2 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:47WMUMichael Brescia 5 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:56WMUOfa Mataele 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKiael Kelly 13/22, 68 YDS
- RushQua Ashley 6 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecQian Magwood 3 REC, 26 YDS
- PassBroc Lowry 23/27, 241 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBroc Lowry 13 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTalique Williams 5 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:56WMU +15%
Ofa Mataele run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
- Q2 13:47WMU +10%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Michael Brescia for 5 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Western Michigan?
Ball State 0, Western Michigan 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| BALL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Total yards | 461 |
| 68 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 20 | Rushing yards | 219 |
| 5 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 24/29 |
| 3.0 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 24:23 | Possession | 35:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:02 BALL punt on 4th & 3 at BALL 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:42WMUCade Conley 1 Yd pass from Brady Jones (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–42
- Q4 8:26WMUBroc Lowry 37 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–35
- Q3 7:59WMUAveion Chenault 14 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–28
- Q2 8:16WMUJalen Buckley 2 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–21
- Q2 13:47WMUMichael Brescia 5 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:56WMUOfa Mataele 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1276, BALL Elo 1131 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Michigan leads 30–22 · Western Michigan has won 4 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| BALL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.9 (#133) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| -22 / +6 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 1.14 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →