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Ball State vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 11, 7:30 PM
Waldo StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WMU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1276
BALL 1131
Projected spread
WMU -8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
73% to win
Market spread
WMU -9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
WMU · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1276, BALL Elo 1131) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)BALL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BALL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWMU
Offense
-0.00
PPA / play
0.1233%
Success rate
43%1.31
Explosiveness
1.052.71
Pts / opportunity
3.3558%
Power success
76%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.0644%
Success rate allowed
37%1.26
Explosiveness allowed
1.2514%
Havoc rate
17%21%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. BALL pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge BALL.
- BALL pass offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge WMU.
- BALL rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge WMU.
Drive-by-drive
BALL 0/14 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 6/13 scoring drives
BALLPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 19Q1
WMUDOWNS9 pl, 34 yds· own 47Q1
BALLPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 19Q1
BALLDOWNS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 48Q1
WMUTD3 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1
BALLFUM4 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
WMUTD4 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
BALLPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 17Q2
WMUTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2
BALLPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q2
WMUPUNT7 pl, 34 yds· own 16Q2
BALLPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 20Q2
WMUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2
WMUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 17Q3
BALLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 26Q3
WMUTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3
BALLPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 16Q3
WMUMISS12 pl, 49 yds· own 38Q3
BALLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q3
WMUINT1 pl, 0 yds· opp 49Q4
BALLPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 42Q4
WMUTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4
BALLFUM2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4
WMUTD8 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q4
BALLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
WMUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 23Q4
BALLEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Western Michigan?
Ball State 0, Western Michigan 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.