| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| AUB | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AUB Elo 1609, BALL Elo 1138) plus home-field advantage. That projects AUB -21.2 (94% to win) — 21.3 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -42.5.
AUB up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 3, Auburn 42.
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had AUB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Durell Robinson run for 54 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
Jeremiah Cobb run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
Jeremiah Cobb run for 46 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
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