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Auburn vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| OU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OU 1742
AUB 1686
Projected spread
OU -4.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
OU
63% to win
Market spread
OU -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
OU · market 68%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1742, AUB Elo 1686) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OU (top)AUB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AUB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOU
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1043%
Success rate
40%1.14
Explosiveness
1.253.90
Pts / opportunity
3.7780%
Power success
64%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.0038%
Success rate allowed
32%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.3217%
Havoc rate
23%26%
Stuff rate
29%Key matchups · Pro
- AUB rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. OU rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge AUB.
- OU rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. AUB rush defense (-0.11 allowed) — edge OU.
- OU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. AUB pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge AUB.
Drive-by-drive
AUB 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →OU 5/13 scoring drives
AUBPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 24Q1
OUFG12 pl, 39 yds· own 30Q1
AUBFG10 pl, 87 yds· own 7Q1
OUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
AUBPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
OUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q1
AUBDOWNS6 pl, 9 yds· own 3Q2
OUTD2 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q2
AUBPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
OUFUM5 pl, 47 yds· own 19Q2
AUBPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 34Q2
OUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 14Q2
AUBTD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
OUEND4 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2
OUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
AUBPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 20Q3
OUFG11 pl, 46 yds· own 40Q3
AUBPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
OUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q3
AUBMISS5 pl, 45 yds· own 23Q3
OUFG8 pl, 58 yds· own 32Q3
AUBTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
OUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
AUBSAF7 pl, -8 yds· own 8Q4
OUEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 29Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
OU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
OU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Oklahoma?
Auburn 17, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had OU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.