Auburn vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsOU
- Q4 1:06OUTeam Safety 17–24
- Q4 4:54OUJohn Mateer 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q4 7:08AUBMalcolm Simmons 4 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–16
- Q4 14:56OUTate Sandell 28 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 8:36OUTate Sandell 32 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 1:08AUBCam Coleman 2 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:45OUIsaiah Sategna III 24 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–10
- Q1 3:56AUBAlex McPherson 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:32OUTate Sandell 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AUB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.5 vs 3rd & 7.0
- AUB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassJackson Arnold 21/32, 220 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJeremiah Cobb 6 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecCam Coleman 3 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJohn Mateer 24/36, 271 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJohn Mateer 10 CAR, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 9 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:08AUB +46%
Malcolm Simmons run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- Q4 4:54OU +36%
John Mateer run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 1:08AUB +22%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- Q4 14:56OU +21%
Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 6:58OU +19%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the OU 34
- Q2 10:45OU +18%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 24 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Oklahoma?
Auburn 17, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
| AUB | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 287 | Total yards | 303 |
| 220 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 32 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/33 | Comp/Att | 24/36 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 1.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 13-85 | Penalties | 9-99 |
| 35:34 | Possession | 24:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:35 AUB go for it on 4th & 33 at AUB 24. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:06OUTeam Safety 17–24
- Q4 4:54OUJohn Mateer 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q4 7:08AUBMalcolm Simmons 4 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)17–16
- Q4 14:56OUTate Sandell 28 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 8:36OUTate Sandell 32 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 1:08AUBCam Coleman 2 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)10–10
- Q2 10:45OUIsaiah Sategna III 24 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)3–10
- Q1 3:56AUBAlex McPherson 24 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:32OUTate Sandell 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1742, AUB Elo 1686 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AUB | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.6 (#30) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →