Auburn vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsBAY
- Q4 4:32AUBJackson Arnold 27 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)38–24
- Q4 11:48BAYMichael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)31–24
- Q3 0:43AUBRayshawn Pleasant 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex McPherson Kick)31–17
- Q3 0:58BAYCaden Knighten 4 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)24–17
- Q3 5:40AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)24–10
- Q2 3:21BAYKobe Prentice 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)17–10
- Q2 5:45AUBAlex McPherson 21 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 10:29AUBDamari Alston 9 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:34AUBJackson Arnold 24 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:36BAYConnor Hawkins 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BAY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassJackson Arnold 11/17, 108 YDS
- RushJackson Arnold 16 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalcolm Simmons 1 REC, 26 YDS
- PassSawyer Robertson 27/48, 419 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBryson Washington 14 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecKole Wilson 8 REC, 134 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:29BAY +26%
PENALTY BAY False Start (Price,Coleton) 5 yards from BAY24 to BAY19. NO PLAY
- Q3 11:31AUB +5%
Kaak,Hudson punt 39 yards to the BAY05 PENALTY AUB Illegal Formation 5 yards from BAY44 to BAY49. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Baylor?
Auburn 38, Baylor 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AUB | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 415 | Total yards | 483 |
| 108 | Passing yards | 419 |
| 307 | Rushing yards | 64 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 27/48 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-83 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 33:18 | Possession | 26:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:45 AUB field goal on 4th & 3 at BAY 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:32AUBJackson Arnold 27 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)38–24
- Q4 11:48BAYMichael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)31–24
- Q3 0:43AUBRayshawn Pleasant 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex McPherson Kick)31–17
- Q3 0:58BAYCaden Knighten 4 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)24–17
- Q3 5:40AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)24–10
- Q2 3:21BAYKobe Prentice 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)17–10
- Q2 5:45AUBAlex McPherson 21 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 10:29AUBDamari Alston 9 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:34AUBJackson Arnold 24 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:36BAYConnor Hawkins 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1604, AUB Elo 1574 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -3.6 (61% to win) — 4.1 points clear of BAY's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AUB | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.6 (#30) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#54) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | +6 / +0 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →