Auburn
SEC· Elo 1574
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 7 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
| BAY | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1604, AUB Elo 1574) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY -3.6 (61% to win) — 4.1 points of value on BAY versus the market line of +0.5.
AUB up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Auburn 38, Baylor 24.
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BAY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 36 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST down
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
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