Army vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsECU
- Q4 8:14ECUKyler Pearson 32 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)6–28
- Q3 10:32ARMYDewayne Coleman 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–21
- Q1 0:39ECUJayvontay Conner 20 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:22ECUAnthony Smith 40 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:05ECUKatin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDewayne Coleman 5/9, 36 YDS
- RushNoah Short 11 CAR, 127 YDS
- RecSamari Howard 2 REC, 26 YDS
- PassKatin Houser 15/22, 251 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLondon Montgomery 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecAnthony Smith 3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:05ECU +18%
Katin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)
- Q1 8:22ECU +16%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
- Q1 0:39ECU +10%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
- Q3 10:32ARMY +7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. East Carolina?
Army 6, East Carolina 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total yards | 431 |
| 49 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 241 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 4-9 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 6/12 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-19 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 34:02 | Possession | 25:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:16 ARMY go for it on 4th & 5 at ECU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:14ECUKyler Pearson 32 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)6–28
- Q3 10:32ARMYDewayne Coleman 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–21
- Q1 0:39ECUJayvontay Conner 20 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:22ECUAnthony Smith 40 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:05ECUKatin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1482, ARMY Elo 1599 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +2.3 (45% to win) — 5.8 points clear of ARMY's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 9–1 · 30% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#46) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -34 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →