Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumConference game
Thu, Sep 25, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| ECU | 21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1482, ARMY Elo 1599) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU +2.3 (43% to win) — 5.8 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -3.5.
Pick: ARMY · 17 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
ECU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 6, East Carolina 28.
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ARMY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Kyler Pearson run for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 24 Dewayne Coleman fumbled, recovered by ECU Rasheed Reason
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ARMY 16
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