Army
3-4·American Athletic· Elo 1544
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| AF | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AF Elo 1355, ARMY Elo 1544) plus home-field advantage. That projects AF +5.2 (35% to win) — 3.7 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of +1.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 20, Air Force 17.
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARMY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:08) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #15 N.Short caught at AF00, for 40 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 4th quarter.
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