Army vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsAF
- Q4 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 1:26AFLiam Szarka 2 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)17–17
- Q4 7:00ARMYCale Hellums 10 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q3 0:00AFLiam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:35ARMYDawson Jones 44 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 0:05ARMYNoah Short 40 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–3
- Q1 2:25AFReagan Tubbs 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCale Hellums 5/9, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCale Hellums 26 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Short 3 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLiam Szarka 13/17, 161 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLiam Szarka 29 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJonah Dawson 4 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:26AF +70%
#9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:12ARMY +68%
#3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF10 (#36 M.Mustell; #8 D.Daley)
- Q4 7:00ARMY +31%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 10 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 0:00AF +31%
Liam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)
- Q4 1:21AF +20%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #15 N.Short caught at Army23, for 10 yards to the Army35, out of bounds at Army35, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:05ARMY +19%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #15 N.Short caught at AF00, for 40 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Air Force?
Army 20, Air Force 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
| ARMY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 295 | Total yards | 335 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 5/9 | Comp/Att | 13/18 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 25:56 | Possession | 34:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:57 ARMY punt on 4th & 6 at AF 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 1:26AFLiam Szarka 2 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)17–17
- Q4 7:00ARMYCale Hellums 10 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q3 0:00AFLiam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:35ARMYDawson Jones 44 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 0:05ARMYNoah Short 40 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–3
- Q1 2:25AFReagan Tubbs 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1355, ARMY Elo 1544 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +5.2 (38% to win) — 3.7 points clear of ARMY's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 38–21–1 · Army has won 3 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#119) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / +24 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.13 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 3.57 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| -34 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →