Arkansas vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsTEX
- Q4 0:16ARKJaden Platt 8 Yd pass from KJ Jackson (Scott Starzyk Kick)37–52
- Q4 7:46ARKKJ Jackson 12 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)30–52
- Q4 11:30TEXLiona Lefau 52 Yd Fumble Recovery (Mason Shipley Kick)23–52
- Q3 0:50TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 20 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)23–45
- Q3 2:18ARKScott Starzyk 33 Yd Field Goal 23–38
- Q3 7:05TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 8 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)20–38
- Q3 12:32TEXArch Manning 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–31
- Q2 0:00TEXMason Shipley 44 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 7:24ARKTaylen Green 4 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)20–21
- Q2 12:26TEXParker Livingstone 54 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)13–21
- Q2 14:09ARKMike Washington Jr. 22 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)13–14
- Q1 2:32TEXArch Manning 4 Yd pass from Parker Livingstone (Mason Shipley Kick)6–14
- Q1 7:34ARKScott Starzyk 33 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 11:29TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 46 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:11ARKScott Starzyk 51 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKJ Jackson 16/29, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 17 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRohan Jones 5 REC, 82 YDS
- PassArch Manning 18/30, 389 YDS, 4 TD
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 15 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecParker Livingstone 2 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:09ARK +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 22 yards gain to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 11:29TEX +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete deep middle to #0 D.Moore Jr. caught at ARK10, for 46 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 2:32TEX +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Livingstone pass complete short right to #16 A.Manning caught at ARK00, for 4 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:24ARK +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 4 yards gain to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:26TEX +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete deep left to #13 P.Livingstone caught at ARK12, for 54 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 12:32TEX +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Texas?
Arkansas 37, Texas 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| ARK | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 490 |
| 324 | Passing yards | 393 |
| 188 | Rushing yards | 97 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/49 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 12.7 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 34:17 | Possession | 25:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 TEX field goal on 4th & 1 at ARK 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:16ARKJaden Platt 8 Yd pass from KJ Jackson (Scott Starzyk Kick)37–52
- Q4 7:46ARKKJ Jackson 12 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)30–52
- Q4 11:30TEXLiona Lefau 52 Yd Fumble Recovery (Mason Shipley Kick)23–52
- Q3 0:50TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 20 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)23–45
- Q3 2:18ARKScott Starzyk 33 Yd Field Goal 23–38
- Q3 7:05TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 8 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)20–38
- Q3 12:32TEXArch Manning 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)20–31
- Q2 0:00TEXMason Shipley 44 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 7:24ARKTaylen Green 4 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)20–21
- Q2 12:26TEXParker Livingstone 54 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)13–21
- Q2 14:09ARKMike Washington Jr. 22 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)13–14
- Q1 2:32TEXArch Manning 4 Yd pass from Parker Livingstone (Mason Shipley Kick)6–14
- Q1 7:34ARKScott Starzyk 33 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 11:29TEXDeAndre Moore Jr. 46 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:11ARKScott Starzyk 51 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1872, ARK Elo 1596 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -13.4 (82% to win) — 4.4 points clear of TEX's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas leads 57–23 · Texas has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| ARK | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| +20 / +9 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 3.48 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →