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Arkansas vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 6 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 37 |
| TEX | 14 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 52 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1872
ARK 1596
Projected spread
TEX -13.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
84% to win
Market spread
TEX -9
sportsbook line
Model edge
TEX
4.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
TEX · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1872, ARK Elo 1596) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -13.4 (84% to win) — 4.4 points of value on TEX versus the market line of -9.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TEX (top)ARK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TEX 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ARK2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTEX
Offense
0.31
PPA / play
0.1849%
Success rate
40%1.36
Explosiveness
1.374.20
Pts / opportunity
3.5265%
Power success
63%Defense
0.27
PPA allowed / play
0.1047%
Success rate allowed
39%1.27
Explosiveness allowed
1.1815%
Havoc rate
18%19%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- ARK rush offense (0.30 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge ARK.
- ARK pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge ARK.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ARK pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge ARK.
Drive-by-drive
ARK 8/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TEX 7/11 scoring drives
ARKFG5 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q1
ARKTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TEXTD4 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
ARKFG7 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1
TEXTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TEXTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
ARKTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
TEXPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
ARKPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 39Q2
TEXPUNT8 pl, 43 yds· own 8Q2
ARKPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 11Q2
TEXFG4 pl, 9 yds· opp 35Q2
TEXTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ARKINT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
TEXTD7 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q3
ARKFG13 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q3
TEXTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
ARKTD10 pl, 44 yds· own 8Q3
ARKTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TEXPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q4
ARKTD9 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q4
TEXEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 45Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TEX up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TEX went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Texas?
Arkansas 37, Texas 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.