Arkansas vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsMEM
- Q4 4:51MEMSutton Smith 64 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–32
- Q3 1:40MEMBrendon Lewis 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 4:16ARKScott Starzyk 46 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 7:25MEMGianni Spetic 47 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 0:31MEMCortez Braham Jr. 38 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–17
- Q2 1:35ARKMike Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)28–10
- Q2 7:41ARKRohan Jones 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–10
- Q2 12:37ARKBraylen Russell 16 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:20MEMBrendon Lewis 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:57MEMGianni Spetic 38 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:50ARKRohan Jones 62 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTaylen Green 18/34, 325 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMike Washington Jr. 15 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRohan Jones 2 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendon Lewis 15/30, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSutton Smith 12 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 7 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:51MEM +48%
Sutton Smith run for 64 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 1:13MEM +46%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 5
- Q4 4:44ARK +25%
Taylen Green pass incomplete
- Q2 12:37ARK +20%
Braylen Russell run for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q1 0:20MEM +20%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q3 1:40MEM +19%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Memphis?
Arkansas 31, Memphis 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| ARK | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 500 | Total yards | 489 |
| 325 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 290 |
| 23 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 27:55 | Possession | 32:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:26 ARK punt on 4th & 17 at MEM 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:51MEMSutton Smith 64 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–32
- Q3 1:40MEMBrendon Lewis 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 4:16ARKScott Starzyk 46 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 7:25MEMGianni Spetic 47 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q2 0:31MEMCortez Braham Jr. 38 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–17
- Q2 1:35ARKMike Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)28–10
- Q2 7:41ARKRohan Jones 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–10
- Q2 12:37ARKBraylen Russell 16 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–10
- Q1 0:20MEMBrendon Lewis 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:57MEMGianni Spetic 38 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:50ARKRohan Jones 62 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1658, ARK Elo 1678 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -1.6 (55% to win) — 8.6 points clear of MEM's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARK | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#61) |
| +20 / +9 | offense / defense | +4 / +2 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 3.48 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →