Arizona vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsASU
- Q4 1:56ARIZKedrick Reescano 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)23–7
- Q4 12:05ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 29 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q3 1:17ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 49 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 11:36ARIZCam Barmore 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)10–7
- Q2 0:01ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 47 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 10:33ASUJeff Sims 27 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNoah Fifita 28/45, 286 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 14 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecKris Hutson 7 REC, 95 YDS
- PassJeff Sims 11/25, 114 YDS, 3 INT
- RushRaleek Brown 13 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecMalik McClain 4 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:36ARIZ +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #80 C.Barmore caught at ASU03, for 9 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:17ARIZ +24%
#19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
- Q4 12:05ARIZ +21%
#19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
- Q2 10:33ASU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims rush left for 27 yards gain to the UA 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:01ARIZ +9%
#19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD PENALTY ASU Offside declined
- Q4 6:53ARIZ +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Hutson thrown to UA 30 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (#12 J.Robinson) 15 yards from UA 20 to UA 35, 1…
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Arizona State?
Arizona 23, Arizona State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 374 | Total yards | 214 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 114 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 100 |
| 24 | First downs | 12 |
| 10-20 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/45 | Comp/Att | 11/25 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 40:01 | Possession | 19:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:01 ARIZ field goal on 4th & 1 at ASU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56ARIZKedrick Reescano 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)23–7
- Q4 12:05ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 29 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q3 1:17ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 49 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q3 11:36ARIZCam Barmore 9 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)10–7
- Q2 0:01ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 47 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 10:33ASUJeff Sims 27 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1653, ARIZ Elo 1651 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -2.5 (58% to win) — 4.5 points clear of ASU's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArizona State leads 45–43–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#33) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| +5 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →