Mountain America StadiumConference gameClosing line: ARIZ +-2 · ARIZ covered
Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
| ASU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1653, ARIZ Elo 1651) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -2.5 (57% to win) — 4.5 points of value on ASU versus the market line of +2.
ARIZ up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona 23, Arizona State 7.
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ASU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ASU08 fumbled by #24 Q.Craig at ASU06 forced by #98 J.Kongaika recovered by ASU #12 J.Robinson at ASU08, End Of Play
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims rush left for 3 yards gain to the UA 13 fumbled by #2 J.Sims at UA 15 forced by #43 D.Johnson recovered by UA #12 G.Smith at UA 13, End Of Play
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #4 K.Hutson caught at UA 41, for 24 yards to the ASU44 (#6 A.Wilson), 1ST DOWN
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