Arizona State vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsMSST
- Q4 0:30MSSTBrenen Thompson 58 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–24
- Q4 1:38ASUJesus Gomez 18 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 13:07ASUJordyn Tyson 2 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:34ASUKanye Udoh 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:00ASUJesus Gomez 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 12:51MSSTBrenen Thompson 47 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:18MSSTKyle Ferrie 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:51MSSTAnthony Evans III 48 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassSam Leavitt 10/22, 82 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRaleek Brown 18 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecJordyn Tyson 6 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBlake Shapen 19/33, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- RushFluff Bothwell 8 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecBrenen Thompson 6 REC, 133 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:30MSST +78%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q4 13:07ASU +35%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q4 1:38ASU +28%
Jesus Gomez 18 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:34ASU +22%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q4 0:55MSST +18%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 42
- Q4 4:10ASU +18%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 48
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Mississippi State?
Arizona State 20, Mississippi State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 345 |
| 82 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 251 | Rushing yards | 66 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 10/23 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-49 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 37:57 | Possession | 22:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:01 ASU go for it on 4th & 15 at MSST 49. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:30MSSTBrenen Thompson 58 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–24
- Q4 1:38ASUJesus Gomez 18 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 13:07ASUJordyn Tyson 2 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:34ASUKanye Udoh 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:00ASUJesus Gomez 51 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 12:51MSSTBrenen Thompson 47 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:18MSSTKyle Ferrie 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:51MSSTAnthony Evans III 48 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1424, ASU Elo 1700 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +8.6 (29% to win) — 2.6 points clear of ASU's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#102 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #72 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #13 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ASU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →