App State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsUSM
- Q4 0:51APPJaden Barnes 3 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Jaquari Lewis Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)22–38
- Q4 9:29USMMicah Davis 21 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)14–38
- Q4 11:23USMJeffery Pittman 9 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)14–31
- Q3 1:06APPJaquari Lewis 10 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q3 11:20USMRobert Briggs 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:40USMIan Foster 99 Yd Interception Return (Reed Harradine Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:09USMReed Harradine 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:05USMJeffery Pittman 5 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:02APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAJ Swann 15/23, 217 YDS, 3 INT
- RushRashod Dubinion 24 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Barnes 10 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBraylon Braxton 22/30, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 6 CAR, 39 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTychaun Chapman 4 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:40USM +21%
AJ Swann pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 99 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
- Q3 11:20USM +19%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
- Q3 1:06APP +18%
Jaquari Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q1 4:05USM +13%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
- Q3 10:02APP +13%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaden Barnes
- Q4 11:23USM +9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Southern Miss?
App State 22, Southern Miss 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| APP | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 470 | Total yards | 389 |
| 375 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 27 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/52 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 9-74 |
| 36:36 | Possession | 23:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:10 USM punt on 4th & 3 at USM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:51APPJaden Barnes 3 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Jaquari Lewis Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)22–38
- Q4 9:29USMMicah Davis 21 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)14–38
- Q4 11:23USMJeffery Pittman 9 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)14–31
- Q3 1:06APPJaquari Lewis 10 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q3 11:20USMRobert Briggs 8 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:40USMIan Foster 99 Yd Interception Return (Reed Harradine Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:09USMReed Harradine 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:05USMJeffery Pittman 5 Yd Run (Reed Harradine Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:02APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1107, APP Elo 1461 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +11.8 (23% to win) — 8.8 points clear of APP's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| APP | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 (#121) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →