Sat, Sep 13, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| USM | 7 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1107, APP Elo 1461) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +11.8 (19% to win) — 8.8 points of value on APP versus the market line of +3.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = APP ahead, below = USM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
USM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
App State 22, Southern Miss 38.
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had APP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
AJ Swann pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 99 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
AJ Swann pass intercepted, touchback. Anthony Richard Jr. return for no gain
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 48 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST down
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