| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 7 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| USM | 7 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1107, APP Elo 1461) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +11.8 (19% to win) — 8.8 points of value on APP versus the market line of +3.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = APP ahead, below = USM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge APP.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Southern Miss?
App State 22, Southern Miss 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had APP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.