Bridgeforth StadiumConference gameClosing line: JMU -20.5 · JMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| JMU | 7 | 20 | 10 | 21 | 58 |
Team stats
APPthis game · better side highlightedJMU
146
Total yards
627145
Passing yards
3031
Rushing yards
32410
First downs
321-12 · 8%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JMU 1802
APP 1328
Projected spread
JMU -21.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
94% to win
Market spread
JMU -20.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
94%
JMU · market 91%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1802, APP Elo 1328) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -21.4 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JMU (top)APP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge JMU.
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge APP.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge APP.
Drive-by-drive
APP 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →JMU 10/14 scoring drives
JMUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
APPPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
JMUINT5 pl, 28 yds· opp 49Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JMU up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 313 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
JMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. James Madison?
App State 10, James Madison 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.