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Akron vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| BUF | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BUF 1356
AKR 991
Projected spread
BUF -17
incl. home edge
Model pick
BUF
90% to win
Market spread
BUF -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
BUF
7.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
90%
BUF · market 77%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1356, AKR Elo 991) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF -17 (90% to win) — 7.0 points of value on BUF versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BUF (top)AKR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
AKR2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBUF
Offense
0.07
PPA / play
0.0738%
Success rate
39%1.25
Explosiveness
1.203.25
Pts / opportunity
3.5072%
Power success
69%Defense
0.11
PPA allowed / play
0.1239%
Success rate allowed
39%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2317%
Havoc rate
15%23%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. AKR rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge AKR.
- AKR pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. BUF pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge BUF.
- BUF pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. AKR pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge AKR.
Drive-by-drive
AKR 5/17 scoring drives← own end zone →BUF 3/16 scoring drives
BUFPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 27Q1
AKRFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 27Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
AKRPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 27Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 33Q1
AKRSAF4 pl, -4 yds· own 27Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
AKRPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· opp 40Q1
BUFPUNT8 pl, 38 yds· own 12Q2
AKRPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 10Q2
BUFDOWNS7 pl, 67 yds· own 8Q2
AKRINT3 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2
BUFFUM3 pl, 22 yds· opp 25Q2
AKRPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 3Q2
BUFPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 38Q2
AKRFUM3 pl, 8 yds· own 8Q2
BUFTD1 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q2
AKREND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
AKRTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BUFFG7 pl, 63 yds· own 34Q3
AKRTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BUFDOWNS7 pl, 37 yds· own 31Q3
AKRDOWNS3 pl, 12 yds· own 32Q3
BUFINT1 pl, 0 yds· opp 44Q3
AKRTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q3
BUFINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 33Q4
AKRPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· opp 45Q4
BUFFG8 pl, 70 yds· own 13Q4
AKRPUNT5 pl, 34 yds· own 26Q4
BUFINT4 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q4
AKRPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· opp 35Q4
BUFINT4 pl, 7 yds· own 8Q4
AKREND1 pl, -4 yds· opp 26Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AKR up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
AKR went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?
Akron 24, Buffalo 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BUF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.