| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 7 | 14 | 7 | 20 | 48 |
| UNLV | 7 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 51 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNLV Elo 1627, AF Elo 1352) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -13.4 (84% to win) — 6.4 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of -7.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = AF ahead, below = UNLV ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
UNLV up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 48, UNLV 51.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 86 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Jai'Den Thomas run for 51 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
Owen Allen run for 43 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
