Air Force vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 0:36UNLVAnthony Colandrea 19 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)48–51
- Q4 1:13AFLiam Szarka 9 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)48–44
- Q4 4:55UNLVJai'Den Thomas 51 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)41–44
- Q4 6:09AFCade Harris 4 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)41–37
- Q4 11:26UNLVKeyvone Lee 2 Yd Run (Keyvone Lee Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–37
- Q4 14:20AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–29
- Q3 5:25UNLVRamon Villela 20 Yd Field Goal 28–29
- Q3 10:08AFBruin Fleischmann 17 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)28–26
- Q3 13:05UNLVDaejon Reynolds 86 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–26
- Q3 14:49UNLVVar'Keyes Gumms 16 Yd pass from Jaden Bradley (Ramon Villela Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:50UNLVRamon Villela 32 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 4:26AFOwen Allen 28 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–10
- Q2 10:17AFOwen Allen 21 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)14–10
- Q2 13:33UNLVRamon Villela 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 1:50AFCade Harris 5 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:10UNLVAnthony Colandrea 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLiam Szarka 10/17, 175 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOwen Allen 17 CAR, 192 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJonah Dawson 3 REC, 79 YDS
- PassAnthony Colandrea 20/32, 361 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJai'Den Thomas 11 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaejon Reynolds 4 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00AF +86%
Jacob Medina 40 yd FG MISSED
- Q2 13:33UNLV +67%
Ramon Villela 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:08UNLV +51%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 31
- Q4 1:20AF +41%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Cade rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNLV09 (Pope,Jake; Bin-Wahad,Mumu) PENALTY UNLV Face Mask (Bin-Wahad,Mumu) 7 yards from UNLV11 to UNLV0…
- Q3 14:49UNLV +24%
Jaden Bradley pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 16 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
- Q2 4:26AF +23%
Owen Allen run for 28 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. UNLV?
Air Force 48, UNLV 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| AF | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 603 | Total yards | 597 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 377 |
| 428 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 32 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/17 | Comp/Att | 21/33 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 8.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-71 | Penalties | 9-79 |
| 36:51 | Possession | 23:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:25 UNLV field goal on 4th & 2 at AF 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36UNLVAnthony Colandrea 19 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)48–51
- Q4 1:13AFLiam Szarka 9 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)48–44
- Q4 4:55UNLVJai'Den Thomas 51 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)41–44
- Q4 6:09AFCade Harris 4 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)41–37
- Q4 11:26UNLVKeyvone Lee 2 Yd Run (Keyvone Lee Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–37
- Q4 14:20AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)34–29
- Q3 5:25UNLVRamon Villela 20 Yd Field Goal 28–29
- Q3 10:08AFBruin Fleischmann 17 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)28–26
- Q3 13:05UNLVDaejon Reynolds 86 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–26
- Q3 14:49UNLVVar'Keyes Gumms 16 Yd pass from Jaden Bradley (Ramon Villela Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:50UNLVRamon Villela 32 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 4:26AFOwen Allen 28 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–10
- Q2 10:17AFOwen Allen 21 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)14–10
- Q2 13:33UNLVRamon Villela 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 1:50AFCade Harris 5 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:10UNLVAnthony Colandrea 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1627, AF Elo 1352 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -13.4 (82% to win) — 6.4 points clear of UNLV's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 18–8 · UNLV has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| AF | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#69) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | +10 / +12 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →