Air Force vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 0:31AFReagan Tubbs 33 Yd Field Goal 26–16
- Q4 5:43SJSUDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 23–16
- Q4 9:11AFQuin Smith 12 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Reagan Tubbs Kick)23–13
- Q4 14:20SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 8 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)16–13
- Q3 10:34SJSUMathias Brown 29 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q2 1:43AFPayton Zdroik Safety16–3
- Q2 8:31AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:45AFLiam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:44SJSUDenis Lynch 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassLiam Szarka 5/10, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOwen Allen 20 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecBruin Fleischmann 2 REC, 29 YDS
- PassWalker Eget 27/42, 334 YDS, 2 INT
- RushSteve Chavez-Soto 9 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLeland Smith 9 REC, 144 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:51AF +36%
No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the SJSU28 (#29 J.Thomas) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#26 E.Powell) 10 yards from SJSU28 to SJSU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 14:20SJSU +30%
Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 13:40SJSU +28%
#97 L.Freer punt 34 yards to the SJSU40 fair catch by #29 J.Thomas at SJSU40
- Q4 9:11AF +24%
#9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at SJSU02, for 12 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:12AF +12%
No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush right for 1 yard gain to the USAFA26 (#4 T.Latu) PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (#26 E.Powell) 15 yards from USAFA26 to USAFA41, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 5:43SJSU +11%
#48 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. San José State?
Air Force 26, San José State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 302 | Total yards | 435 |
| 41 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 261 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 5/10 | Comp/Att | 28/43 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 36:26 | Possession | 23:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:08 SJSU punt on 4th & 1 at SJSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31AFReagan Tubbs 33 Yd Field Goal 26–16
- Q4 5:43SJSUDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 23–16
- Q4 9:11AFQuin Smith 12 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Reagan Tubbs Kick)23–13
- Q4 14:20SJSUSteve Chavez-Soto 8 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)16–13
- Q3 10:34SJSUMathias Brown 29 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q2 1:43AFPayton Zdroik Safety16–3
- Q2 8:31AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:45AFLiam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:44SJSUDenis Lynch 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1417, AF Elo 1362 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 6–3 · 22% have been one-possession games
| AF | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#78) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →