Sat, Nov 8, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 26 |
| SJSU | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SJSU Elo 1417, AF Elo 1362) plus home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Unlock with Pro →AF up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 26, San José State 16.
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated out-of-sample: +0.449 pts mean Closing Line Value and 56.4% beat the close (n=1,596, 2021-2025 opens, walk-forward). We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush left for 2 yards loss to the USAFA19 fumbled by #7 X.Ward at USAFA19 recovered by USAFA #5 R.Jones at USAFA19, End Of Play
End of 1st quarter.
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA37, for 36 yards to the USAFA37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
