Chapman StadiumClosing line: TLSA -5 · TLSA covered
Sun, Aug 31, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| TLSA | 7 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 35 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ABIL ahead, below = TLSA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
TLSA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Abilene Christian 7, Tulsa 35.
No — the model picked ABIL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ABIL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Dominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion)
Ajay Allen run for 40 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
Stone Earle run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 3
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