Abilene Christian vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Abilene Christian
Tulsa
▸Final
Chapman Stadium
ABILTeam statsTLSA
260Total yards499
140Pass236
120Rush263
13First downs25
5-153rd down8-19
1Turnovers0
26:55Possession33:05
- Q4 6:42ABILStone Earle 11 Yd Run (Kyler Meschi Kick)7–35
- Q4 11:46TLSAAjay Allen 40 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–35
- Q4 13:57TLSABrody Foley 22 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)0–28
- Q3 3:55TLSADominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion)0–21
- Q3 11:58TLSASeth Morgan 40 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 8:47TLSASeth Morgan 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 1:34TLSAZion Booker 12 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
TLSA −5
Against the number
TLSA covered
line TLSA −5
ABIL aheadTLSA ahead
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ABIL ahead, below = TLSA ahead.
GRIDPEX.COM
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Closing line
TLSA −5
Closing total
59.5
Model line
—
Actual result
ABIL 7 – 35 TLSA
Abilene Christian
- PassStone Earle 13/19, 140 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordon Vaughn 15 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJavon Gipson 3 REC, 73 YDS
Tulsa
- PassKirk Francis 20/31, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 20 CAR, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMicah Tease 4 REC, 69 YDS
24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
145
Points / snap
0.29
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
TLSA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Abilene Christian vs. Tulsa?
Abilene Christian 7, Tulsa 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TLSA) was correct.
ABIL
TLSA
36%
Success rate
46%
-0.12
EPA / pass
0.45
-0.12
EPA / rush
0.31
38%
Early-down success
44%
35%
Pass success
46%
36%
Rush success
46%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
14%
Stuffed rush rate
20%
42%
Pass rate
45%
5.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.7
ABIL
5.7 yards to go on 3rd down
62 scrimmage snaps
TLSA
6.7 yards to go on 3rd down
83 scrimmage snaps
| ABIL | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 499 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 236 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 263 |
| 13 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 13/19 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 10-53 |
| 26:55 | Possession | 33:05 |
ABIL
8/10 with the model
−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
TLSA
6/9 with the model
−2.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 12:06 TLSA punt on 4th & 1 at TLSA 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishABIL 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TLSA 6/11 scoring drives
ABILPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 30Q1
ABILDOWNS15 pl, 87 yds· own 10Q1
TLSATD14 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q1
ABILDOWNS7 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 1Q2
ABILPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 10Q2
TLSAFG7 pl, 41 yds· own 49Q2
ABILPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q2
TLSAPUNT9 pl, 39 yds· own 23Q2
ABILEND2 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q2
TLSAFG11 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· opp 49Q3
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 6Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 40Q3
TLSATD8 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3
ABILPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
TLSATD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3
ABILINT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
TLSATD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q4
ABILTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TLSAEND12 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 6:42ABILStone Earle 11 Yd Run (Kyler Meschi Kick)7–35
- Q4 11:46TLSAAjay Allen 40 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–35
- Q4 13:57TLSABrody Foley 22 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)0–28
- Q3 3:55TLSADominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion)0–21
- Q3 11:58TLSASeth Morgan 40 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 8:47TLSASeth Morgan 28 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 1:34TLSAZion Booker 12 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →