Abilene Christian vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Abilene Christian0-1

0021

TCU1-0

▸0042

Final

Amon G. Carter Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ABIL	0	0	9	12	21
TCU	14	14	7	7	42

ABILTeam statsTCU

453Total yards489

276Pass361

177Rush128

27First downs24

12-173rd down9-11

0Turnovers1

36:43Possession23:17

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:40ABILJB Mitchell III 9 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–42
• Q4 11:08ABILBryan Henry 7 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–42
• Q4 14:56TCUJon Denman 2 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)9–42
• Q3 3:45ABILBrandon Perez 33 Yd Field Goal 9–35
• Q3 8:59TCUJordan Dwyer 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)6–35
• Q3 10:23ABILRovaughn Banks Jr. 1 Yd Run (Kyler Meschi PAT failed)6–28
• Q2 1:24TCUEd Small 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:10TCUTrent Battle 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:33TCUEd Small 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:43TCUChase Curtis 11 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

TCU −42

Against the number

ABIL covered

line TCU −42

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TCU 100%50%ABIL 100%

Kickoff150 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TCU (top)ABIL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TCU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TCU −42

Closing total

60.0

Model line

—

Actual result

ABIL 21 – 42 TCU

Leaders

Abilene Christian

• PassStone Earle 22/29, 276 YDS, 2 TD
• RushRovaughn Banks Jr. 19 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJB Mitchell III 5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD

TCU

• PassJosh Hoover 21/27, 337 YDS, 4 TD
• RushKevorian Barnes 10 CAR, 43 YDS
• RecJoseph Manjack IV 4 REC, 114 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

142

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TCU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

TCU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTulane vs Nicholls36-7WTexas State vs Southern Miss50-36WMontana State vs Cal Poly59-19WMonmouth vs Maine51-24WDuquesne vs Long Island University47-21

Fourth downs

7 calls

ABIL gave up 1.7 points to the model on fourth down.ABIL 2/5 · TCU 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Abilene Christian vs. TCU?

Abilene Christian 21, TCU 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ABIL

TCU

53%

Success rate

58%

0.58

EPA / pass

0.74

0.15

EPA / rush

0.20

48%

Early-down success

52%

55%

Pass success

59%

50%

Rush success

57%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

48%

Pass rate

55%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

ABIL

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

TCU

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ABIL		TCU
453	Total yards	489
276	Passing yards	361
177	Rushing yards	128
27	First downs	24
12-17	3rd down	9-11
0-0	4th down	1-1
22/29	Comp/Att	25/32
9.5	Yards per pass	11.3
3.8	Yards per rush	4.6
0	Turnovers	1
3-35	Penalties	4-46
36:43	Possession	23:17

Fourth downs

7 calls

ABIL

2/5 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

TCU

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 0:47 ABIL punt on 4th & 4 at TCU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.

Every call, priced (7)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ABIL 4/9 scoring drives← own end zone →TCU 6/9 scoring drives

TCUTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1

ABILPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

TCUTD10 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

ABILPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1

TCUTD7 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q1

ABILMISS13 pl, 51 yds· own 18Q2

TCUTD11 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

ABILMISS9 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q2

TCUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 24Q2

ABILTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

TCUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

ABILFG11 pl, 58 yds· own 25Q3

TCUTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

ABILTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

TCUINT4 pl, 23 yds· own 28Q4

ABILTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4

TCUPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q4

ABILEND7 pl, 36 yds· own 19Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:40ABILJB Mitchell III 9 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–42
• Q4 11:08ABILBryan Henry 7 Yd pass from Stone Earle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–42
• Q4 14:56TCUJon Denman 2 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)9–42
• Q3 3:45ABILBrandon Perez 33 Yd Field Goal 9–35
• Q3 8:59TCUJordan Dwyer 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)6–35
• Q3 10:23ABILRovaughn Banks Jr. 1 Yd Run (Kyler Meschi PAT failed)6–28
• Q2 1:24TCUEd Small 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:10TCUTrent Battle 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)0–21
• Q1 4:33TCUEd Small 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:43TCUChase Curtis 11 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →