UAB vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsMEM
- Q4 0:43MEMHarris Boyd 4 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–53
- Q4 4:57MEMMario Anderson Jr. 11 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–46
- Q4 10:13MEMJamauri Chislom 3 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–39
- Q4 13:23UABTerrell McDonald 1 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)18–32
- Q4 14:56MEMAnthony Landphere 2 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)11–32
- Q3 6:37UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 11–25
- Q3 10:57MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 19 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)8–25
- Q2 1:55UABKam Shanks 10 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Terrell McDonald Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–18
- Q2 6:34MEMAnthony Landphere 10 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)0–18
- Q1 3:43MEMTristian Vandenberg 41 Yd Field Goal 0–11
- Q1 11:38MEMBrandon Thomas 2 Yd Run (Caden Costa Pass to Colby Cox for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassJalen Kitna 27/43, 253 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLee Beebe Jr. 12 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecMalachi Holt-Bennett 2 REC, 74 YDS
- PassSeth Henigan 23/34, 299 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMario Anderson Jr. 22 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKoby Drake 3 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:38MEM +9%
Brandon Thomas 2 Yd Run (Caden Costa Pass to Colby Cox for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Memphis?
UAB 18, Memphis 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| UAB | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 526 |
| 324 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 28 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 16 | First downs | 31 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/44 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 25:37 | Possession | 34:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:45 MEM field goal on 4th & 4 at UAB 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43MEMHarris Boyd 4 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–53
- Q4 4:57MEMMario Anderson Jr. 11 Yd Run (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–46
- Q4 10:13MEMJamauri Chislom 3 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)18–39
- Q4 13:23UABTerrell McDonald 1 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)18–32
- Q4 14:56MEMAnthony Landphere 2 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)11–32
- Q3 6:37UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 11–25
- Q3 10:57MEMGreg Desrosiers Jr. 19 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)8–25
- Q2 1:55UABKam Shanks 10 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Terrell McDonald Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–18
- Q2 6:34MEMAnthony Landphere 10 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)0–18
- Q1 3:43MEMTristian Vandenberg 41 Yd Field Goal 0–11
- Q1 11:38MEMBrandon Thomas 2 Yd Run (Caden Costa Pass to Colby Cox for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1569, UAB Elo 1197 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -17.3 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAB leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| UAB | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.4 (#89) | CORE overall | -0.7 (#71) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | +3 / +4 |
| 1.83 | points / drive | 3.01 |
| 2.99 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →