Texas State vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsODU
- Q4 1:19ODUColton Joseph 28 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–24
- Q4 5:16TXSTBeau Sparks 24 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)14–17
- Q4 9:43ODUEthan Sanchez 32 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q3 7:34TXSTJordan McCloud 7 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:08ODUColton Joseph 11 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:42ODUColton Joseph 4 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJordan McCloud 17/33, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushIsmail Mahdi 25 CAR, 139 YDS
- RecJoey Hobert 6 REC, 88 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 15/28, 130 YDS
- RushColton Joseph 16 CAR, 111 YDS, 3 TD
- RecIsiah Paige 6 REC, 36 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:23TXST +36%
J.McCloud pass complete. Catch made by B.Sparks for 24 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 9:52ODU +25%
E.Sanchez 32 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-ODU, Holder-ODU
- Q4 4:38ODU +24%
A.Young rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by S.Parker; K.Haynes at TXST 47
- Q3 7:43TXST +22%
J.McCloud scrambles for 7 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:14ODU +20%
C.Joseph rushed for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:30ODU +19%
C.Joseph rushed for 28 yards. TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Old Dominion?
Texas State 14, Old Dominion 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TXST | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Total yards | 322 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 192 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 15/28 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:45 ODU punt on 4th & 2 at ODU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:19ODUColton Joseph 28 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–24
- Q4 5:16TXSTBeau Sparks 24 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)14–17
- Q4 9:43ODUEthan Sanchez 32 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q3 7:34TXSTJordan McCloud 7 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:08ODUColton Joseph 11 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:42ODUColton Joseph 4 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1379, TXST Elo 1639 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU +8 (31% to win) — 2.5 points clear of ODU's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #42 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| TXST | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#49) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#58) |
| +6 / +2 | offense / defense | +2 / -1 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →