South Florida vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsCLT
- Q4 5:31USFAlvon Isaac 9 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)59–24
- Q4 13:34USFKelley Joiner 45 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)52–24
- Q4 13:43CLTIsaiah Myers 15 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Stephen Rusnak Kick)45–24
- Q3 1:11USFMac Harris 25 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)45–17
- Q3 3:38USFBrent Austin 14 Yd Interception Return (John Cannon Kick)38–17
- Q3 4:26USFJohn Cannon 33 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q3 9:13USFNay'Quan Wright 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)28–17
- Q3 10:49CLTCartevious Norton 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)21–17
- Q3 12:57USFKelley Joiner 54 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–10
- Q2 6:41USFNay'Quan Wright 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:38CLTStephen Rusnak 50 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 1:55USFTa'Ron Keith 16 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:18CLTCartevious Norton 6 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassBryce Archie 11/16, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKelley Joiner 9 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNay'Quan Wright 2 REC, 50 YDS
- PassDeshawn Purdie 17/39, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCartevious Norton 10 CAR, 30 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Myers 4 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:41USF +21%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 1:55USF +19%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 16 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 10:49CLT +19%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q1 5:18CLT +19%
Cartevious Norton run for 6 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q3 9:13USF +17%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 12:57USF +17%
Kelley Joiner run for 54 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Charlotte?
South Florida 59, Charlotte 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| USF | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 551 | Total yards | 347 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 425 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 26 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 17/39 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 8.9 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 9-70 | Penalties | 12-103 |
| 25:55 | Possession | 34:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:46 USF punt on 4th & 3 at USF 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:31USFAlvon Isaac 9 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)59–24
- Q4 13:34USFKelley Joiner 45 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)52–24
- Q4 13:43CLTIsaiah Myers 15 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Stephen Rusnak Kick)45–24
- Q3 1:11USFMac Harris 25 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)45–17
- Q3 3:38USFBrent Austin 14 Yd Interception Return (John Cannon Kick)38–17
- Q3 4:26USFJohn Cannon 33 Yd Field Goal 31–17
- Q3 9:13USFNay'Quan Wright 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)28–17
- Q3 10:49CLTCartevious Norton 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)21–17
- Q3 12:57USFKelley Joiner 54 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–10
- Q2 6:41USFNay'Quan Wright 6 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:38CLTStephen Rusnak 50 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 1:55USFTa'Ron Keith 16 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:18CLTCartevious Norton 6 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1182, USF Elo 1339 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +3.9 (41% to win) — 5.4 points clear of USF's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #111 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| USF | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#88) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#110) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | -4 / +9 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 1.69 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →