Miami vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsCAL
- Q4 0:26MIAElijah Arroyo 5 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)39–38
- Q4 4:04MIACam Ward 24 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)32–38
- Q4 10:28MIAIsaiah Horton 18 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)25–38
- Q4 14:13CALRyan Coe 37 Yd Field Goal 18–38
- Q3 3:02MIADamien Martinez 1 Yd Run (Cam Ward Pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)18–35
- Q3 8:06CALChandler Rogers 9 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)10–35
- Q3 13:07CALNohl Williams 40 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Coe Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:00CALJaydn Ott 66 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Ryan Coe Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:07MIAAndres Borregales 46 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 13:43CALJaydn Ott 5 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:58CALJack Endries 57 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Ryan Coe Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:19MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.3
- CAL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 22% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassCam Ward 35/53, 437 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 11 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Restrepo 7 REC, 163 YDS
- PassFernando Mendoza 11/22, 285 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Brady 1 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecJack Endries 3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:26MIA +97%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q4 0:05MIA +84%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 49
- Q4 0:11CAL +71%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mason Starling
- Q2 8:00CAL +21%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 66 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
- Q2 13:43CAL +20%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
- Q4 4:04MIA +17%
Cam Ward run for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. California?
Miami 39, California 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 575 | Total yards | 370 |
| 437 | Passing yards | 297 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 73 |
| 30 | First downs | 12 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 35/53 | Comp/Att | 12/24 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 12.4 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-110 | Penalties | 6-43 |
| 37:35 | Possession | 22:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:18 MIA punt on 4th & 5 at CAL 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26MIAElijah Arroyo 5 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)39–38
- Q4 4:04MIACam Ward 24 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)32–38
- Q4 10:28MIAIsaiah Horton 18 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)25–38
- Q4 14:13CALRyan Coe 37 Yd Field Goal 18–38
- Q3 3:02MIADamien Martinez 1 Yd Run (Cam Ward Pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)18–35
- Q3 8:06CALChandler Rogers 9 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)10–35
- Q3 13:07CALNohl Williams 40 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Coe Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:00CALJaydn Ott 66 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Ryan Coe Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:07MIAAndres Borregales 46 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 13:43CALJaydn Ott 5 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:58CALJack Endries 57 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Ryan Coe Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:19MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1537, MIA Elo 1834 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +9.5 (27% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MIA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.9 (#8) | CORE overall | +6.9 (#42) |
| +19 / -3 | offense / defense | +0 / -7 |
| 3.79 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.34 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →