Kansas State vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsBYU
- Q4 12:02BYUSione I Moa 21 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)9–38
- Q3 5:12KSUChris Tennant 28 Yd Field Goal 9–31
- Q3 10:45BYUParker Kingston 90 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)6–31
- Q3 13:01BYUDarius Lassiter 3 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Will Ferrin Kick)6–24
- Q2 0:29BYUChase Roberts 23 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Will Ferrin Kick)6–17
- Q2 1:08BYUTommy Prassas 30 Yd Fumble Return (Will Ferrin Kick)6–10
- Q2 2:10BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 9:07KSUChris Tennant 27 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 8:01KSUChris Tennant 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BYU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 3.6
- PassAvery Johnson 15/28, 130 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDJ Giddens 19 CAR, 93 YDS
- RecJayce Brown 4 REC, 51 YDS
- PassJake Retzlaff 15/21, 149 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSione Moa 15 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Roberts 2 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 822 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:29BYU +24%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 23 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q3 13:01BYU +18%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 3 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q2 1:08BYU +17%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 3 yards DJ Giddens fumbled, forced by Jack Kelly, recovered by BYU Tommy Prassas, return for 30 yds (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q3 10:45BYU +10%
Simon McClannan punt for 57 yds, Parker Kingston returns for 90 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q2 2:10BYU +7%
Will Ferrin 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 13:40BYU +6%
Sione I Moa run for 24 yds to the KSU 3 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. BYU?
Kansas State 9, BYU 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 241 |
| 139 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 228 | Rushing yards | 92 |
| 17 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 15/21 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 33:03 | Possession | 26:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:12 BYU punt on 4th & 10 at KSU 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:02BYUSione I Moa 21 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)9–38
- Q3 5:12KSUChris Tennant 28 Yd Field Goal 9–31
- Q3 10:45BYUParker Kingston 90 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)6–31
- Q3 13:01BYUDarius Lassiter 3 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Will Ferrin Kick)6–24
- Q2 0:29BYUChase Roberts 23 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Will Ferrin Kick)6–17
- Q2 1:08BYUTommy Prassas 30 Yd Fumble Return (Will Ferrin Kick)6–10
- Q2 2:10BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 9:07KSUChris Tennant 27 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 8:01KSUChris Tennant 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1472, KSU Elo 1842 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU +12.4 (22% to win) — 4.9 points clear of KSU's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #63 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #19 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →BYU leads 5–4 · BYU has won 3 straight · 11% have been one-possession games
| KSU | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#17) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +7 / -10 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.01 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →