Hanover vs. Butler: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Hanover0-1

00

Butler2-0

▸0053

Final

Butler Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
HANO	0	0	0	0	0
BUTL	15	21	10	7	53

HANOTeam statsBUTL

133Total yards492

79Pass151

54Rush341

9First downs22

4-153rd down11-14

1Turnovers0

31:22Possession28:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:42BUTLGriffin Caldwell 21 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–53
• Q3 5:48BUTLRyan Short 25 Yd Field Goal 0–46
• Q3 11:48BUTLErshod Jasey II 7 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–43
• Q2 0:07BUTLEthan Loss 7 Yd pass from Nick Howard (Ryan Short Kick)0–36
• Q2 9:04BUTLJoey Suchy 46 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–29
• Q2 11:00BUTLEthan Loss 9 Yd pass from Reagan Andrew (Ryan Short Kick)0–22
• Q1 4:24BUTLNick Howard 30 Yd Run (Reagan Andrew Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 13:00BUTLEthan Loss 47 Yd pass from Nick Howard (Ryan Short Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• HANO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BUTL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 4.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BUTL 100%50%HANO 100%

Kickoff129 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BUTL (top)HANO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUTL 100%

Leaders

Hanover

• PassEian Roudebush 11/20, 47 YDS
• RushEian Roudebush 8 CAR, 15 YDS
• RecEric Roudebush 3 REC, 33 YDS

Butler

• PassNick Howard 6/8, 91 YDS, 2 TD
• RushNick Howard 8 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RecEthan Loss 4 REC, 72 YDS, 3 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

112

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUTL up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 104 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

BUTL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WClemson vs App State66-20WNorth Carolina Central vs Delaware State52-10WSouth Dakota State vs Murray State52-6

Fourth downs

13 calls

BUTL gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.HANO 8/9 · BUTL 0/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Hanover vs. Butler?

Hanover 0, Butler 53.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BUTL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

HANO

BUTL

22%

Success rate

51%

0.02

EPA / pass

0.53

-0.31

EPA / rush

0.49

15%

Early-down success

43%

21%

Pass success

50%

22%

Rush success

51%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

55%

Pass rate

33%

8.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.6

HANO

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

BUTL

4.6 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

HANO		BUTL
133	Total yards	492
79	Passing yards	151
54	Rushing yards	341
9	First downs	22
4-15	3rd down	11-14
1-2	4th down	0-0
15/26	Comp/Att	13/20
3.0	Yards per pass	7.6
2.1	Yards per rush	7.9
1	Turnovers	0
2-7	Penalties	3-30
31:22	Possession	28:38

Fourth downs

13 calls

HANO

8/9 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

BUTL

0/2 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 5:48 BUTL field goal on 4th & 1 at HANO 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.13 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

HANO 0/10 scoring drives← own end zone →BUTL 8/11 scoring drives

HANOPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

BUTLTD2 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1

HANOPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 22Q1

BUTLPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 49Q1

HANOPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1

BUTLTD6 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

HANOPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 14Q1

BUTLTD11 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

HANOPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

BUTLTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

HANODOWNS11 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q2

BUTLTD11 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

BUTLTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

HANOPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q3

BUTLFG6 pl, 25 yds· opp 32Q3

HANOPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 19Q3

BUTLTD9 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

HANOINT10 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4

BUTLMISS5 pl, 42 yds· own 29Q4

HANOPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4

BUTLEND2 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 11:42BUTLGriffin Caldwell 21 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–53
• Q3 5:48BUTLRyan Short 25 Yd Field Goal 0–46
• Q3 11:48BUTLErshod Jasey II 7 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–43
• Q2 0:07BUTLEthan Loss 7 Yd pass from Nick Howard (Ryan Short Kick)0–36
• Q2 9:04BUTLJoey Suchy 46 Yd Run (Ryan Short Kick)0–29
• Q2 11:00BUTLEthan Loss 9 Yd pass from Reagan Andrew (Ryan Short Kick)0–22
• Q1 4:24BUTLNick Howard 30 Yd Run (Reagan Andrew Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 13:00BUTLEthan Loss 47 Yd pass from Nick Howard (Ryan Short Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →