Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 5:03FAUKahlil Brantley 4 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)63–16
- Q3 5:02FAUXavier Terrell 55 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)56–16
- Q3 7:18TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 21 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)49–16
- Q3 9:04FAUWyatt Sullivan 5 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)49–9
- Q2 0:10TLSALuke McGary 10 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)42–9
- Q2 2:12FAUJabari Smith 76 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)42–2
- Q2 3:38FAUXavier Terrell 93 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)35–2
- Q2 5:07FAUCJ Campbell Jr. 78 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)28–2
- Q2 9:03FAUGemari Sands 22 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)21–2
- Q2 12:52FAUDaedae Hill 16 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–2
- Q1 5:38TLSATeam Safety 7–2
- Q1 9:29FAUKahlil Brantley 28 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTyriq Starks 18/25, 294 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushXavier Terrell 2 CAR, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCJ Campbell Jr. 4 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKirk Francis 19/33, 226 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushViron Ellison Jr. 9 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecKamdyn Benjamin 8 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 40 entering the 4th quarter. Across 264 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:29FAU +16%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 28 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q2 12:52FAU +13%
Cooper Legas pass intercepted Daedae Hill return for 16 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q2 9:03FAU +8%
Gemari Sands run for 22 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic 63, Tulsa 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| FAU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 665 | Total yards | 351 |
| 294 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 371 | Rushing yards | 64 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 5-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 29/53 |
| 11.8 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 8.6 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:42 TLSA punt on 4th & 3 at FAU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:03FAUKahlil Brantley 4 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)63–16
- Q3 5:02FAUXavier Terrell 55 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)56–16
- Q3 7:18TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 21 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)49–16
- Q3 9:04FAUWyatt Sullivan 5 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)49–9
- Q2 0:10TLSALuke McGary 10 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)42–9
- Q2 2:12FAUJabari Smith 76 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)42–2
- Q2 3:38FAUXavier Terrell 93 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)35–2
- Q2 5:07FAUCJ Campbell Jr. 78 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)28–2
- Q2 9:03FAUGemari Sands 22 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)21–2
- Q2 12:52FAUDaedae Hill 16 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–2
- Q1 5:38TLSATeam Safety 7–2
- Q1 9:29FAUKahlil Brantley 28 Yd pass from Tyriq Starks (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 934, FAU Elo 1095 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +4 (40% to win) — 4.0 points clear of FAU's market line of PK. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #118 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| FAU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.3 (#115) | CORE overall | -29.4 (#132) |
| -7 / +8 | offense / defense | -16 / +13 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 1.29 |
| 2.69 | allowed / drive | 3.02 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →