Alabama vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsMICH
- Q4 4:38ALAGraham Nicholson 51 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q4 7:21MICHDominic Zvada 37 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q2 0:04ALAGraham Nicholson 24 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 4:06ALARobbie Ouzts 25 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–16
- Q1 2:04MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q1 4:15MICHFredrick Moore 13 Yd pass from Davis Warren (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:52MICHDominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:15MICHDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJalen Milroe 16/32, 192 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRico Scott 1 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecGermie Bernard 4 REC, 80 YDS
- PassDavis Warren 9/12, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJordan Marshall 23 CAR, 100 YDS
- RecFredrick Moore 3 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Michigan?
Alabama 13, Michigan 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ALA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 190 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 75 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 15 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 16/33 | Comp/Att | 11/15 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 21:48 | Possession | 38:12 |
- Q4 4:38ALAGraham Nicholson 51 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q4 7:21MICHDominic Zvada 37 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q2 0:04ALAGraham Nicholson 24 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 4:06ALARobbie Ouzts 25 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–16
- Q1 2:04MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q1 4:15MICHFredrick Moore 13 Yd pass from Davis Warren (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:52MICHDominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:15MICHDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1888, ALA Elo 2007 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MICH +4.8 (39% to win) — 11.7 points clear of MICH's market line of +16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #11 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #52 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →| ALA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#12) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#43) |
| +7 / -11 | offense / defense | -5 / -12 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →