UL Monroe vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 7:11TA&MRandy Bond 52 Yd Field Goal 3–47
- Q4 11:15TA&MRaymond Cottrell 13 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Ethan Moczulski Kick)3–44
- Q3 5:54TA&MRueben Owens 21 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–37
- Q3 11:00TA&MRandy Bond 34 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:48TA&MAmari Daniels 4 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–27
- Q2 4:04TA&MRandy Bond 23 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 9:37TA&MConner Weigman 19 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–17
- Q2 13:19ULMDerek McCormick 24 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 2:26TA&MJahdae Walker 12 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:30TA&MRandy Bond 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassJiya Wright 6/15, 95 YDS
- RushJiya Wright 5 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecDariyan Wiley 3 REC, 52 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 25/29, 337 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRueben Owens II 8 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAinias Smith 7 REC, 127 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:26TA&M +7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 12 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q2 9:37TA&M +5%
Conner Weigman run for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Texas A&M?
UL Monroe 3, Texas A&M 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| ULM | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 222 | Total yards | 557 |
| 95 | Passing yards | 399 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 8 | First downs | 28 |
| 1-12 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 6/17 | Comp/Att | 32/40 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 8-50 |
| 25:31 | Possession | 34:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:04 ULM punt on 4th & 7 at TA&M 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:11TA&MRandy Bond 52 Yd Field Goal 3–47
- Q4 11:15TA&MRaymond Cottrell 13 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Ethan Moczulski Kick)3–44
- Q3 5:54TA&MRueben Owens 21 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–37
- Q3 11:00TA&MRandy Bond 34 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:48TA&MAmari Daniels 4 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–27
- Q2 4:04TA&MRandy Bond 23 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 9:37TA&MConner Weigman 19 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)3–17
- Q2 13:19ULMDerek McCormick 24 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 2:26TA&MJahdae Walker 12 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Randy Bond Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:30TA&MRandy Bond 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1608, ULM Elo 1255 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -16.5 (86% to win) — 20.0 points clear of ULM's market line of -36.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ULM | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.7 (#129) | CORE overall | +15.4 (#21) |
| -17 / +6 | offense / defense | +8 / -7 |
| 1.16 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 2.88 | allowed / drive | 1.16 |
| 41% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →