Texas College vs. Central Arkansas: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas College0-1

02

Central Arkansas0-1

▸0070

Final

Estes Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TEXA	0	0	0	2	2
CENT	35	14	21	0	70

TEXATeam statsCENT

108Total yards499

43Pass103

65Rush396

10First downs22

3-143rd down2-4

4Turnovers0

33:22Possession26:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:16TEXADylan Dubois Safety2–70
• Q3 1:50CENTTravelle Anderson 8 Yd Run (Brock Funk Kick)0–70
• Q3 3:44CENTLaJoey Jones 7 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–63
• Q3 6:33CENTIsaiah Broadway 5 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–56
• Q2 2:57CENTTyion Berry 32 Yd pass from Austin Myers (Jake Gaster Kick)0–49
• Q2 7:59CENTKylin James 3 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–42
• Q1 0:28CENTDarius Hale 11 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:07CENTKylin James 25 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:23CENTMyles Butler 26 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster Kick)0–21
• Q1 13:38CENTShunDerrick Powell 22 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:21CENTShunDerrick Powell 62 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• CENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEXA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 7.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CENT 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff74 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CENT (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CENT 100%

Leaders

Texas College

• PassBrodderick Brown 6/17, 41 YDS, 2 INT
• RushTamogue Sloan 6 CAR, 23 YDS
• RecDeiontray Hill 3 REC, 33 YDS

Central Arkansas

• PassWill McElvain 6/8, 55 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKylin James 10 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
• RecTyion Berry 2 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

57.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

62

Points / snap

1.16

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CENT up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 71 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CENT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WPenn State vs Delaware63-7WDrake vs South Dakota State70-7WPenn State vs Massachusetts63-0WSouthern Illinois vs Western Illinois63-0WIdaho vs Idaho State63-21

Fourth downs

9 calls

CENT gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 7/7 · CENT 0/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas College vs. Central Arkansas?

Texas College 2, Central Arkansas 70.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CENT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

CENT

31%

Success rate

62%

-0.41

EPA / pass

2.95

0.08

EPA / rush

0.99

30%

Early-down success

64%

18%

Pass success

67%

42%

Rush success

61%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

31%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

47%

Pass rate

12%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

11.0

TEXA

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

36 scrimmage snaps

CENT

11.0 yards to go on 3rd down

26 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		CENT
108	Total yards	499
43	Passing yards	103
65	Rushing yards	396
10	First downs	22
3-14	3rd down	2-4
0-0	4th down	1-2
12/31	Comp/Att	8/11
1.4	Yards per pass	9.4
2.7	Yards per rush	9.9
4	Turnovers	0
3-15	Penalties	6-62
33:22	Possession	26:38

Fourth downs

9 calls

TEXA

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

CENT

0/1 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 2:57 CENT go for it on 4th & 6 at TEXA 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.24 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CENT 11/12 scoring drives

TEXAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

CENTTD2 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

CENTTD2 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 35Q1

CENTTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1

CENTTD2 pl, 32 yds· opp 32Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

CENTTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

CENTTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 42Q2

CENTTD7 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2

TEXAEND10 pl, 41 yds· own 14Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

CENTTD4 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q3

TEXAFUM3 pl, 16 yds· own 8Q3

CENTTD4 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q3

TEXAINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 17Q3

CENTTD2 pl, 9 yds· opp 9Q3

TEXAINT9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3

CENTSAF1 pl, -2 yds· own 4Q4

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q4

CENTDOWNS5 pl, 33 yds· own 18Q4

TEXAUncateg7 pl, 30 yds· own 49Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:16TEXADylan Dubois Safety2–70
• Q3 1:50CENTTravelle Anderson 8 Yd Run (Brock Funk Kick)0–70
• Q3 3:44CENTLaJoey Jones 7 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–63
• Q3 6:33CENTIsaiah Broadway 5 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–56
• Q2 2:57CENTTyion Berry 32 Yd pass from Austin Myers (Jake Gaster Kick)0–49
• Q2 7:59CENTKylin James 3 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–42
• Q1 0:28CENTDarius Hale 11 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:07CENTKylin James 25 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:23CENTMyles Butler 26 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Jake Gaster Kick)0–21
• Q1 13:38CENTShunDerrick Powell 22 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:21CENTShunDerrick Powell 62 Yd Run (Jake Gaster Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →