Stony Brook vs. Villanova: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Stony Brook0-1
Villanova0-1
▸Final
Villanova StadiumConference game
STONTeam statsVILL
294Total yards556
198Pass398
96Rush158
18First downs18
7-163rd down5-9
1Turnovers1
35:12Possession24:48
- Q4 0:00STONJayden Cook 13 Yd pass from Daron Bryden 13–48
- Q4 13:38VILLIsaiah Wright 2 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–48
- Q3 6:13VILLJaylan Sanchez 24 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–41
- Q2 1:11VILLRayjuon Pringle 76 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio PAT blocked)7–34
- Q2 8:28VILLJalen Jackson 44 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:59VILLJaaron Hayek 20 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:43VILLJaaron Hayek 43 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:44STONDez Williams 12 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:36VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 5 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
VILL −27.5
Against the number
VILL covered
line VILL −27.5
Kickoff138 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
VILL (top)STON (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VILL 100%
Closing line
VILL −27.5
Closing total
46.5
Model line
—
Actual result
STON 13 – 48 VILL
Stony Brook
- PassCasey Case 12/22, 113 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRoland Dempster 12 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecAnthony Johnson 11 REC, 90 YDS
Villanova
- PassConnor Watkins 13/19, 361 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJalen Jackson 8 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRayjuon Pringle 5 REC, 196 YDS, 1 TD
30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
118
Points / snap
0.52
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVILL up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
VILL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. Villanova?
Stony Brook 13, Villanova 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VILL) was correct.
STON
VILL
38%
Success rate
51%
0.10
EPA / pass
1.43
0.04
EPA / rush
0.29
36%
Early-down success
51%
37%
Pass success
58%
39%
Rush success
44%
6%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
22%
21%
Stuffed rush rate
4%
59%
Pass rate
49%
6.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.0
STON
6.3 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
VILL
6.0 yards to go on 3rd down
49 scrimmage snaps
| STON | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 556 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 398 |
| 96 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 22/37 | Comp/Att | 17/23 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 17.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-38 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 35:12 | Possession | 24:48 |
STON
6/9 with the model
−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
VILL
3/4 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 6:08 STON punt on 4th & 3 at VILL 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSTON 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →VILL 7/11 scoring drives
VILLDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
STONMISS7 pl, 17 yds· opp 34Q1
VILLTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
STONTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
VILLTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
STONPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1
VILLTD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
STONPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 15Q2
VILLTD2 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2
STONPUNT8 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
STONINT2 pl, -2 yds· opp 10Q2
VILLTD3 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2
STONEND2 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
STONPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3
VILLPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 40Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q3
VILLTD7 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3
STONPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3
VILLTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
STONPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4
VILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q4
STONPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 43Q4
VILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q4
STONTD11 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4
- Q4 0:00STONJayden Cook 13 Yd pass from Daron Bryden 13–48
- Q4 13:38VILLIsaiah Wright 2 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–48
- Q3 6:13VILLJaylan Sanchez 24 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–41
- Q2 1:11VILLRayjuon Pringle 76 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio PAT blocked)7–34
- Q2 8:28VILLJalen Jackson 44 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:59VILLJaaron Hayek 20 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:43VILLJaaron Hayek 43 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:44STONDez Williams 12 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:36VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 5 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →